非洲猪瘟疫情关注度对股票收益率影响研究——基于食品类上市公司的经验证据  

Effects of ASFV Concern on Stock Yield:An Empirical Study Based on Evidencesfrom Listed Food Companies

作　　者：陈有华[1] 张壮 CHEN You-hua;ZHANG Zhuang(South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou,Guangdong,510642,China)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510642

出　　处：《武汉商学院学报》2021年第1期45-52,共8页Journal of Wuhan Business University

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金项目(项目编号:2018A030310669);广东省高校珠江学者人才支持项目(2019);广东省哲学社科基金项目(项目编号:GD2018CYJ01)。

摘　　要：始于2018年8月份的非洲猪瘟严重冲击了中国肉类市场,但鲜有文献研究猪瘟关注度对上市公司业绩的影响。利用2018年-2019年A股51家食品类上市公司的数据,研究了猪瘟关注度对股票收益率的影响。系统GMM方法与面板回归的分析结果表明,猪瘟关注度给食品类上市公司的股票收益率带来了显著的负向影响;相应的机制研究则表明,猪瘟关注度负向影响投资者情绪,进而加深其对食品类上市公司股票收益率的负向影响;基于公司规模的门槛效应分析表明,规模越小的公司受到猪瘟关注度的负向影响越深;此外,基于业务分组面板回归结果表明,肉制品无关企业也会受到猪瘟关注度的负向影响,但肉制品相关企业还会受到"猪瘟关注度→投资者情绪→股票收益"路径的影响。面对大型突发公共事件,建议及时控制事件发展态势,减缓事件负面影响,引领媒体导向,及时公布相关信息,稳定投资者情绪,制定差异化的政府补救措施。African swine fever,that broke out in August 2018,has serious impact on China’s pork market,but little literature can be found on the effects of ASFV( African Swine Fever Virus) concern on the performance of Chinese listed companies.So the effects of ASFV concern on stock yields are studied based on the data of 51 listed food companies in A-share market from 2018 to 2019.According to analytical results of system GMM and panel data regression,ASFV concern has a significant negative impact on the stock yields of listed food companies.Corresponding mechanism research shows that the ASFV concern has a negative impact on investor affectives,and then deepens its negative impact on the stock yields of listed food companies.The threshold effect analysis based on the company size shows that the smaller the size of the company,the greater the negative impact of ASFV concern.In addition,the panel data regression analysis based on business grouping shows that non-meat food enterprises are also negatively affected by the ASFV concern,while meat-related enterprises are affected in the path of "ASFV concern→investor sentiment→stock return". In the face of major public emergencies,it is suggested to control in time the event development,mitigate its negative impacts,guide the media responses,disclose the information timely,stabilize investor sentiments,and make differentiated government remedies.

关 键 词：猪瘟关注度 投资者情绪 股票收益率 食品安全 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]