全球价值链视角下关税的价格传递效应:一个改进的模型  

The Price Pass-through Effect of Tariff from the Perspective of Global Value Chain:An Improved Model

作　　者：赵永亮[1,2] 孙华平 ZHAO Yong-liang;SUN Hua-ping(School of Economics and Management, Yancheng Institute of technology, Yancheng, Jiangsu 224051;School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013)

机构地区：[1]盐城工学院经济管理学院,江苏盐城224051 [2]江苏大学财经学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《江南大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2021年第2期50-62,共13页Journal of Jiangnan University：Humanities & Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于全球价值链知识溢出的中国区域高碳产业低碳化转型路径研究”(71774071);国家自然科学基金国际合作交流项目“内生创新与全球价值链攀升”(71911540483);国家统计局项目“全球价值链视角下贸易摩擦对行业影响的理论模型与定量测算研究”(2019175);江苏大学“青年骨干教师培养工程”项目(5521380003)。

摘　　要：国际生产分割使得全球价值链合作网络仍然需要应对国家之间不对称贸易政策的重要冲击。加征关税使跨越关境的中间品价格上升,推动以该中间品作为投入的下游行业产品价格上升,其后再进一步沿着全球产业链和价值链向下游呈多轮传递。文章在现有理论模型的基础上,放松直接消耗系数不变的假定,建立了投入产出矩阵多轮递推模型,并以改进后的模型模拟中美两国各自对对方所有产品加征关税的全球价格传递效应。模拟结果显示:美国对中国所有中间产品加征关税使美国绝大多数行业出现不同程度的价格上涨,受影响较大的行业为汽车制造等行业,但其价格上涨的效果存在时间衰减效应,同时,美国对中国征收关税还对加拿大、墨西哥等国的产品价格影响较大,说明存在显著的空间溢出效应;而中国对美国征收关税对全球价格影响很小,且对中国国内各行业产品价格的影响较均衡。在全球价值链结构下,由于企业可以采取对外投资等各类对冲策略,因而产业之间的价格互动影响并不是单纯的线性传递,而有可能是非线性传导,其最终的效果如何则取决于不同国家和区域产业在全球价值链嵌入程度与位置的综合效应。The international production segmentation makes it necessary for the global value chain to face the important impact of asymmetric trade policy among countries.The imposition of tariffsraises the price of intermediate products across the border,and increases the price of downstream products in which intermediate products are used as input.Then,it will be further transferred to the downstream along the global industrial chain and value chain.Based on the existing theoretical model,the paper relaxed the assumption that the direct consumption coefficient was unchanged,and established the multi round recursive model of input-output matrix.The improved model was used to simulate the global price pass-through effect of tariff imposed on each other by China and the United States.The simulation results show that the tariff imposed by the United States on all China's intermediate products causes the price increases in most industries in the United States to varying degrees,and the industries that are influenced more are automobile manufacturing industries;however,the effect of price increases has time attenuation effect.Meanwhile,the tariff imposed by the United States on China also has a great impact on the prices of products in Canada,Mexico and other countries,indicating that there is a significant differenceof spatial spillover effects.The impact of China's tariffs on the global price is very small,and the impact on the prices of various domestic industries is more balanced.Under the global value chain structure,because enterprises can adopt various hedging strategies such as foreign investment,the price interaction between industries is more a non-linear transmission than a linear transmission.The final effect depends on the comprehensive effect of the embedded degree and location of different countries and regions in the global value chain.

关 键 词：关税 中间品 价格传递效应 全球价值链 中美贸易 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.5[经济管理—世界经济]