基于人口流动数据研究武汉“封城”对中国2019冠状病毒病疫情态势的影响  

Impact of Wuhan lockdown on the spread of COVID-19 in China:a study based on the data of population mobility

作　　者：王思聪 叶元庆 胡可嘉 雷浩 陈辰 徐小林 李文渊 袁长征 曹淑殷 王思思 李舒 贾君麟 王秦川 卞子龙 吴息凤 WANG Sicong;YE Yuanqing;HU Kejia;LEI Hao;CHEN Chen;XU Xiaolin;LI Wenyuan;YUAN Changzheng;CAO Shuyin;WANG Sisi;LI Shu;JIA Junlin;WANG Qinchuan;BIAN Zilong;WU Xifeng(Center for Biostatistics,Bioinformatics and Big Data,the Second Affiliated Hospital,Zhejiang University School of Medicine,Hangzhou 310009,China;Department of Big Data in Health Science,School of Public Health,Zhejiang University School of Medicine,Hangzhou 310058,China;National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Department of Surgical Oncology,Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital,Zhejiang University School of Medicine,Hangzhou 310016,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学医学院附属第二医院生物统计、生物信息学和大数据中心,浙江杭州310009 [2]浙江大学医学院公共卫生学院大数据健康科学系,浙江杭州310058 [3]浙江大学健康医疗大数据国家研究院,浙江杭州310058 [4]浙江大学医学院附属邵逸夫医院肿瘤外科,浙江杭州310016

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（医学版）》2021年第1期61-67,共7页Journal of Zhejiang University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：浙江大学新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)肺炎应急科研专项(2020XGZX003);浙江省创新团队(2019R01007);浙江省重点实验室(2020E10004);浙江省自然科学基金(LEZ20H260002)。

摘　　要：目的:定量评估武汉“封城”对控制中国2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)疫情传播的作用。方法:首先基于全国217个城市的武汉来源输入性病例数据和武汉来源的人口流动数据,估算武汉2020年1月23日“封城”前的每日新发感染率。并假设武汉“封城”推迟7 d,武汉的每日新发感染率在2020年1月23日后分别呈高、中、低增长趋势,估算2020年1月24至30日的每日新发感染率,从而计算在此期间武汉流出的感染人数。最后,通过易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)模型预测武汉“封城”推迟7 d对国内疫情发展可能造成的影响。结果:2020年1月19至23日,武汉每日新发感染率分别为0.021%、0.026%、0.029%、0.033%和0.070%。截至2020年1月23日,武汉共有感染者20066人。假设武汉“封城”推迟7 d,在2020年1月30日,武汉每日新发感染率在高、中、低增长情景模拟的结果分别是0.335%、0.129%和0.070%。依据上述三种情景,预测分别会有32075、24819和20334名感染者从武汉流入其他地区,到2020年3月19日,全国COVID-19确诊人数将是官方公布数据的3.3~3.9倍。结论:在疫情暴发早期,武汉及时采取“封城”措施对控制COVID-19疫情在中国的传播具有重要意义。Objective:This study aimed to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of the Wuhan lockdown measure on controlling the spread of coronavirus diesase 2019(COVID-19).Method:Firstly,estimate the daily new infection rate in Wuhan before January 23rd,2020 when the city went into lockdown by consulting the data of Wuhan population mobility and the number of cases imported from Wuhan in 217 cities of China's Mainland.Then estimate what the daily new infection rate would have been in Wuhan from January 24th to January 30th if the lockdown measure had been delayed for 7 days,assuming that the daily new infection in Wuhan after January 23rd increased in a high,moderate and low trend respectively(using exponential,linear and logarithm growth models).Based on that,calculate the number of infection cases imported from Wuhan during this period.Finally,predict the possible impact of 7-day delayed lockdown in Wuhan on the epidemic situation in China using the susceptible-exposed-infectiousremoved(SEIR)model.Results:The daily new infection rate in Wuhan was estimated to be 0.021%,0.026%,0.029%,0.033%and 0.070%respectively from January 19th to January 23rd.And there were at least 20066 infection cases in Wuhan by January 23rd,2020.If Wuhan lockdown measure had been delayed for 7 days,the daily new infection rate on January 30th would have been 0.335%in the exponential growth model,0.129%in the linear growth model,and 0.070%in the logarithm growth model.Correspondingly,there would have been 32075,24819 and 20334 infection cases travelling from Wuhan to other areas of China's Mainland,and the number of cumulative confirmed cases as of March 19th in China's Mainland would have been 3.3-3.9 times of the officially reported number.Conclusions:Timely taking city-level lockdown measure in Wuhan in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak is essential in containing the spread of the disease in China.

关 键 词：2019冠状病毒病 中国 人口流动 非药物干预 易感-暴露-感染-恢复模型 疫情播散 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]