基于风险评估的新疆抗虫棉种植分析  

Analysis on risk assessment of Bt cotton planting in Xinjiang

作　　者：王振霖 吕昭智[1] 张鑫[1] 刘永建 WANG Zhenlin;LYU Zhaozhi;ZHANG Xin;LIU Yongjian(State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps,Eighth Division,No.121 Regiment Agriculture Development Service Center,Shihezi 832000,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]新疆生产建设兵团第八师一二一团农业发展服务中心,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2021年第2期580-588,共9页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：中塔棉花有害生物综合治理及其示范项目(Y362101001)资助。

摘　　要：基于新疆棉铃虫生物学特性和多年的种群动态趋势,并在收集棉花种植面积、产量、棉花市场价格及棉铃虫防治费用等相关数据的基础上,采用种群模拟模型(CLIMEX模型)并结合随机模拟方法(@RISK软件),评估不同场景下棉铃虫对新疆棉花产业造成的潜在经济损失。棉铃虫种群模拟表明:随着未来气候变化,新疆棉铃虫的周增长指数(GIw)会增加,棉铃虫越冬蛹羽化的日期明显提前,危害风险可能增加;2种模拟场景结果表明,抗虫棉能有效地降低棉铃虫造成的危害,减少单位面积防治成本。建议新疆相关部门未来可通过种植抗虫棉与害虫综合治理策略(IPM)的有机结合,来减少棉铃虫及次要害虫造成的损失。The potential economic losses caused by cotton bollworm(Helicoverpa amigera)in different scenarios in the cotton area of the autonomous region of Xinjiang,China,were evaluated.Data were obtained based on the biology and population dynamics of the cotton bollworm in Xinjiang over many years,in addition to cotton planting area,yield,cotton market price and costs of management of cotton bollworm and were analyzed using a population simulation method(CLIMEX model)and a random simulation method(@RISK).The simulation of the population dynamics of the cotton bollworm suggests that the weekly growth index(GIw)of this pest in Xinjiang will increase,and that the dates of emergence of overwintering pupa are clearly advanced.Global warming may exacerbate the damage and economic loss.The@RISK model simulation shows that Bt cotton can effectively suppress the cotton bollworm in this area and reduce the prevention and management costs for this pest per unit area.Our findings indicate that planting of Bt cotton combined with integrated pest management in Xinjiang can reduce the possible economical loss caused by cotton bollworm and secondary pests in the future.

关 键 词：棉铃虫 CLIMEX 抗虫棉 IPM @RISK 

分 类 号：S435.62[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] F326.12[农业科学—植物保护]