基于改进蒙特卡洛法的电力系统可靠性评估  

Power System Reliability Evaluation Based on Improved Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：赵永生 张健 凌松 周远科 赵爱华[2] ZHAO Yongsheng;ZHANG Jian;LING Song;ZHOU Yuanke;ZHAO Aihua(State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co., Ltd., Hefei 230001, China;State Grid Anhui Electric Power Research Institute, Hefei 230001, China)

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力有限公司,安徽合肥230001 [2]国网安徽省电力科学研究院,安徽合肥230001

出　　处：《微型电脑应用》2021年第4期121-123,共3页Microcomputer Applications

摘　　要：随着电力系统智能化建设的快速发展,对于电能的需求急剧增加,针对其可靠性能力和质量要求也随之提高。因此,对于电力系统的可靠性评估是十分重要的。从设备维护和运行角度上来看,建立对电力系统可靠性评估的方法,采取基于改进的蒙特卡洛法,提出基于改进的蒙特卡洛模拟法来分析电力系统元件中的时间状态。利用重要抽样方法,分析出对LOLP、EPNS等可靠性指标的影响,实现对电力系统的可靠性进行快速评估。基于合理的应用分析,进一步降低了计算方差,证明了研究方法的准确性和合理性,提高了重要抽样的适用性。With the rapid development of intelligent construction of power system,the demand for electric energy is increasing rapidly,and the requirements for its reliability and quality are also increasing.Therefore,it is very important to evaluate the reliability of power system.From the point of view of equipment maintenance and operation,the method of power system reliability evaluation is established.An improved Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed to analyze the time state of power system components.By using the importance sampling method,the influence on the reliability indexes such as LOLP and EPNS is analyzed to realize the rapid evaluation of power system reliability.Based on reasonable application analysis,the calculation variance is further reduced,the accuracy and rationality of the research method are proved,and the applicability of important sampling is improved.

关 键 词：ERP 财务管理系统 WEB服务 面向服务架构 功能表示层 

分 类 号：TH814[机械工程—仪器科学与技术] TP212.9[机械工程—精密仪器及机械]