中国地下经济规模与影响因素的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Scale and the Determinants of China’s Underground Economy

作　　者：侯建翔 HOU Jian-xiang(School of Management,University of St Andrews,St Andrews KY169 RJ,UK)

机构地区：[1]圣安德鲁斯大学管理学院,英国圣安德鲁斯KY169RJ

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2021年第3期42-54,共13页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：采用货币需求法和现金比率法测算中国1993—2018年地下经济的规模,结果显示中国地下经济规模相当于GDP的0.89%~20%。并基于可变参数模型和VAR模型分析地下经济规模与其影响因素之间的关系,发现税收、失业率和经济增长率与地下经济规模正相关;公共服务质量与地下经济规模负相关;金融发展水平与地下经济规模关系密切,但影响方向尚未明确。根据实证结果对遏制地下经济活动提出建议。The scale of China’s underground economy from 1993 to 2018 is calculated by using the demand for currency approach and the general currency ratio method. The results indicate that the scale of China’s underground economy takes 0.89% to 20% of China’s GDP. Based on variable parameter model and VAR model, the paper analyzes the relationship between the scale of underground economy and the determinants. The findings show that taxation, unemployment rate and economic growth rate are positively correlated with the scale of underground economy;the quality of public service is negatively associated with the underground economy;financial development level is closely related with the underground economy, but the impact direction is unknown for the time. Finally, according to the empirical results, this paper puts forward some suggestions on curbing underground economic activities.

关 键 词：地下经济 货币需求法 现金比率法 可变参数模型 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]