实际汇率低估对贫困发生率的影响:来自发展中经济体的经验证据  

The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Underestimation on The Incidence of Poverty:Empirical Evidence from Developing Economies

作　　者：刘来会 安素霞[2] Liu Laihui;An Suxia

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院 [2]辽宁大学商学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2021年第3期95-106,M0004,共13页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(项目编号:18CGJ034)资助。

摘　　要：贫困问题是当今世界面临的最严峻问题,消除贫困是人类的共同使命。文章将实际汇率纳入到贫困问题的分析中,并基于121个发展中经济体1991~2017年的面板数据进行了实证验证。考虑到贫困线的动态调整和适用性,文章同时区分了实际汇率低估对极端贫困、中低端贫困和中高端贫困的影响。研究发现,实际汇率低估会显著降低不同标准下的贫困发生率。进一步研究发现,实际汇率低估依赖于以下四种途径影响贫困发生率:实际汇率低估意味着劳动力实际报酬的增加,发展中经济体的低技能劳动者会得到更多报酬,直接提高贫困人群的收入;实际汇率低估通过促进经济增长,进而降低贫困发生率;实际汇率低估更加有利于低技能劳动力就业,使贫困人群受益;实际汇率低估会通过提高物价水平,恶化贫困人口的生活状况,提升贫困发生率。因此,发展中经济体要着重防范实际汇率波动可能对贫困人口造成的冲击。Poverty is the most serious problem facing the world today.It is the common mission of human beings to eliminate poverty.The real exchange rate is included in the analysis of poverty,and empirical verification is conducted based on panel data of 121 developing countries in 1991~2017.Considering the dynamic adjustment and applicability of the poverty line,the paper also distinguishes the impact of the undervalued real exchange rate on extreme poverty,middle and low-end poverty and middle and highend poverty.It is found that the undervalued real exchange rate can significantly reduce the incidence of poverty under different standards.Further study found that the real exchange rate undervaluation depends on the following four ways to affect the incidence of poverty.Firstly,the real exchange rate undervaluation means that the real return of labor will increase,and low skilled workers in developing countries will get more returns,which will directly improve the income of poverty group.Secondly,the real exchange rate undervaluation will promote economic growth,thereby reducing the incidence of poverty.Thirdly,the undervalued international exchange rate is more conducive to the employment of low skilled labor and the poverty group.Fourthly,the undervalued real exchange rate will worsen the living conditions of the poor and increase the incidence of poverty by raising the price level.Therefore,developing countries should pay more attention to the negative effect of real exchange rate fluctuations on the poverty group.

关 键 词：经济增长 非熟练劳动力 实际汇率低估 贫困标准 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学] F112.1