SARIMA模型与Holt-Winters模型在丙型肝炎发病率预测中的应用  

Application of SARIMA Model and Holt-Winters Model in Predicting the Incidence of Hepatitis C

作　　者：侯文涛 杨郁辉 胡运红 HOU Wen-tao;YANG Yu-hui;HU Yun-hong(Department of Mathematics and Information Technology,Yuncheng University,Yuncheng 044000,China)

机构地区：[1]运城学院数学与信息技术学院,山西运城044000

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第4期172-179,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11241005);运城学院院级科研项目(CY-2020014)。

摘　　要：主要探讨SARIMA模型和Holt-Winters模型在丙型肝炎月发病率预测中的应用价值.首先,利用2006年1月至2018年12月的月发病率数据为基础,分别建立SARIMA模型和Holt-Winters模型;然后,预测2019年1月到12月的月发病率数据,并与实际月发病率数据进行比较,得到SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)模型的拟合效果较好;最后,利用SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)模型预测了2020年1月至12月的月发病率.研究结果将可为相关部门丙型肝炎防控提供科学依据.This paper mainly discusses the application of SARIMA model and Holt-Winters model in predicting the monthly incidence of Hepatitis C in China.First,establish the SARIMA model and Holt-Winters model based on the data of the monthly incidence from January 2006 to December 2018 respectively.Then,predict the monthly incidence rate from January to December 2019,and compare with the actual monthly morbidity data.The model of SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)was better.Finally,predict the monthly incidence of from January to December 2020 by using the SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)model.The research results will provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis C in relevant departments.

关 键 词：丙型肝炎 SARIMA Holt-Winters 预测 

分 类 号：R512.63[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]