2009-2019年常州市武进区30~69岁居民主要慢性病死亡特征的定量研究  

A quantitative study of death caused by main chronic noncommunicable diseases among residents between 30 and 69 years old in Wujin district of Changzhou during 2009—2019

作　　者：强德仁[1] 顾建新 石素逸[1] 许敏锐[1] 宗菁 杨佳成 靳光付[2] QIANG Deren;GU Jianxing;SHI Suyi;XU Minrui;ZONG Jing;YANG Jiacheng;JIN Guangfu(Wujin District Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Changzhou 213164;School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,China)

机构地区：[1]常州市武进区疾病预防控制中心,江苏常州213164 [2]南京医科大学公共卫生学院,江苏南京211166

出　　处：《南京医科大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第2期274-279,共6页Journal of Nanjing Medical University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0907002);常州市武进区科技支撑计划——社会发展(WS201829)。

摘　　要：目的:分析2009-2019年常州市武进区30~69岁居民4类慢性病死亡特征,为实现"健康中国2030"早死概率下降目标提供依据。方法:计算30~69岁居民4类慢性病的死亡率和过早死亡率,采用年度变化百分比描述变化趋势,使用差别分解分析法分析人口和非人口因素对死亡率的影响。结果:30~69岁居民主要慢性病的粗死亡率以年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,APC)-2.01%(P<0.001)的速度下降,恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病的标化死亡率分别以APC-3.62%(P<0.001)、-3.80%(P<0.001)、-6.61%(P=0.004)的速度下降,而糖尿病的标化死亡率则逐年上升(APC 4.19%,P=0.022)。主要慢性病早死概率由12.32%下降到8.91%,但糖尿病的早死概率却略有上升趋势。非人口因素导致的粗死亡率下降作用明显超过人口老化因素产生的上升作用,而对于男性糖尿病的粗死亡率,人口因素和非人口因素均促进其上升。结论:常州市武进区30~69岁居民主要慢性病早死概率总体呈下降趋势,但主要慢性病的防控形势依然严峻,糖尿病的防控任务尤为重要。Objective:This stndy aims to explore the death characteristics and trends caused by four main chronic noncommunicable diseases(NCDs)among residents between 30 and 69 years old in Wujin District of Changzhou from 2009 to 2019,to provide suggestions and basis for realizing the goal of decreasing the probability of premature mortality of"Health China 2030"major NCDs in this region. Methods:The mortality rate of four major NCDs were analyzed for residents between 30 and 69 years old,the average annual percent change(APC)was used to describe the change trend,and premature mortality probability of major NCDs was calculated on the basis of the life table,the effects of demographic factors and non-demographic factors were analyzed by differential decomposition analysis. Results:In 2009—2019,the crude mortality rate of major NCDs among residents between 30 and 69 years old decreased at the rate of APC=-2.01%(P<0.001). The standardized mortality of malignant tumor,cardio-cerebrovascular disease,chronic respiratory diseases going down with APC=-3.62%(P<0.001),APC=-3.80%(P<0.001),APC=-6.61%(P=0.004)respectively,while the standardized mortality of diabetes increased year by year(APC=4.19%,P=0.022). The premature mortality of major NCDs decreased from 12.32% in 2009 to 8.91% in 2019,while the premature mortality of diabetes showed a slightly upward trend. The decrease of crude mortality caused by non-demographic factors in the four major NCDs of residents aged 30 to 69 obviously outweighed the increase of crude mortality caused by demographic factors,but for the change of male diabetes mortality,both demographic factors and non-demographic factors contributed to the increase of mortality. Conclusion:The premature mortality of major NCDs residents between 30 and 69 years old is on the decline. However,in general,the prevention and control of major NCDs is still grim,and the prevention and control of diabetes is particularly important in terms of preventing premature death.

关 键 词：慢性病 死亡率 年度变化百分比 早死概率 差别分解分析 

分 类 号：R18[医药卫生—流行病学]