基于标准化降水指数的山东省近45年旱涝演变特征  

Evolution Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Shandong Province in Recent 45 Years Based on Standardized Precipitation Index

作　　者：任建成 张婷婷 REN Jiancheng;ZHANG Tingting(Binzhou Meteorological Bureau,Binzhou,Shandong 256612,China)

机构地区：[1]滨州市气象局,山东滨州256612

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2021年第2期149-154,162,共7页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：中国教师发展基金会校本科研专项基金“全国教育科学“十三五”教育部规划课题《基础教育课业改革与小研究生创新学习试验》”(FHB160516)。

摘　　要：为探究山东省旱涝的演变特征,使用山东省25个国家气象观测站近45年的逐月降水资料,计算了月、季节和年尺度标准化降水指数(SPI),用旱涝频率、旱涝站次比、旱涝强度等指标分析了山东省旱涝的时空特征。结果表明:(1)山东省多年平均雨涝频率高于干旱频率,但不同地区、不同等级的旱涝频率差异较大,旱涝事件呈常态化发展趋势。(2)山东省旱涝影响范围大致相当。20世纪70年代的秋季旱涝状态以正常为主,其他时段各季节旱涝状态以交替出现为主。各季节多年平均雨涝频率均高于干旱频率,但多年和各季节的平均干旱强度均高于平均雨涝强度。(3)山东省受干旱的影响总体上大于雨涝,但20世纪70年代雨涝的强度和范围均明显大于干旱。20世纪80年代的秋季干旱影响范围最大,20世纪80年代的冬季雨涝影响范围最大。山东省旱涝的时空差异较大,全省受干旱的影响总体上大于雨涝,旱涝事件为常态化事件。In order to explore the evolution characteristics of drought and flood in Shandong Province,the monthly precipitation data of 25 national meteorological stations in Shandong Province in recent 45 years were used to calculate the standardized precipitation index(SPI)at monthly,seasonal and annual scales,the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and flood in Shandong Province were analyzed by using drought flood frequency,ratio of drought/flood stations and drought/flood intensity.The results showed that:(1)the average frequency of rainfall and waterlogging in Shandong Province was higher than that of drought,but the frequency of drought and flood varied greatly in different regions and grades,and the drought and flood events were normal development trend;(2)the influence range of drought and flood in Shandong Province was roughly the same;in the 1970s,the drought and flood state in autumn was mainly normal,and in other periods,the drought and flood state in each season appeared alternately;the annual average frequency of rainfall and waterlogging in each season was higher than that of drought,but the average drought intensities of many years and each season were higher than the average rainfall and waterlogging intensities;(3)in general,the impact of drought was greater than that of rainfall in Shandong Province,but the intensity and range of rainfall and waterlogging in 1970s were obviously greater than that of drought;the influence range of autumn drought in 1980s was the largest,and that of winter waterlogging in 1980s was the largest.The spatial and temporal differences of drought and flood in Shandong Province are large.The impact of drought on the whole province is greater than that of rainfall and flood.

关 键 词：旱涝 标准化降水指数(SPI) 山东省 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]