基于APSIM模型研究不同降水年型下降水变化对旱地小麦产量的影响  

Based on APSIM Model to Study the Influence of Different Precipitation Years on the Yield of Dryland Wheat

作　　者：冯仰强 聂志刚[1] 王钧[1] 罗荣鑫 FENG Yangqiang;NIE Zhigang;WANG Jun;LUO Rongxin(College of Information Science and Technology,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou,Gansu 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《作物研究》2021年第2期108-111,140,共5页Crop Research

基　　金：甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目(2020B-121);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(20JR10RA509);甘肃农业大学国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202010733048);甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院发展基金项目(GAU-XKFZJJ-2020-04)。

摘　　要：旱地小麦是甘肃省重要的粮食作物,气候变化对旱地小麦产量影响显著。本文利用APSIM模型模拟评估不同降水年型下降水变化对旱地小麦产量的影响,并利用甘肃省定西市1979—2017年的气候数据,采用相关分析法对甘肃省定西市旱地小麦产量进行模拟研究。结果表明:丰水年小麦平均产量为2246.48 kg/hm^(2),平水年和干旱年分别为1906.94、1598.62 kg/hm^(2),丰水年产量显著高于平水年和干旱年;在这3种降水年型下,旱地小麦产量随降水变化表现为正效应,降水变化比例每增加5%,干旱年旱地小麦平均增产17.9%,平水年旱地小麦平均增产17.7%,丰水年旱地小麦平均增产14.4%。Dryland wheat is an important food crop in Gansu Province,and climate change has a significant impact on wheat yield in the dry land.In this paper,the APSIM model was used to simulate and evaluate the effect of change water in different precipitation years on the wheat yield in the dry land of Dingxi City,Gansu Province.The climatic data from 1979 to2017 were used to simulate the wheat yield in the dry land of Dingxi,in Gansu Province by using correlation analysis method.The results showed that the average wheat yield in wet year were 2246.48 kg/hm^(2),1906.94 kg/hm^(2) in Median water year and 1598.62 kg/hm^(2) in dry year.The wheat yield in wet year was significantly higher than that in the Median water year and the dry year,and was 1.18 and 1.41 times of that in the normal year and dry year,respectively.Under the three precipitation types,the yield of wheat in the dry land showed positive effect with precipitation change,when precipitation change increased by 5%,the dryland wheat production increased by an average of 17.9% in the drought years;dryland wheat yields increased by the average of 17.7% in median water year;dryland wheat production increased by an average of 14.4% in wet years.

关 键 词：旱地小麦 产量 降水 APSIM模型 

分 类 号：S512.048[农业科学—作物学]