广东增城荔枝产量预报方法研究  

Yield Prediction Method of Litchi in Zengcheng of Guangdong Province

作　　者：彭晓丹 欧善国 PENG Xiaodan;OU Shanguo(Guangzhou Climate and Agrometeorology Centre,Guangzhou Guangdong 511430,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市气候与农业气象中心,广东广州511430

出　　处：《农业工程》2021年第1期119-122,共4页AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING

基　　金：广东省乡村振兴战略专项:农业科技能力提升(项目编号:403-2018-XMZC-0002-90)。

摘　　要：以广东典型荔枝产区广州市增城区为例,利用增城1999—2018年荔枝产量资料和同期气象资料,开展增城荔枝产量预报方法研究。将荔枝产量分解为趋势产量、气象生理产量和随机噪声(通常忽略不计),趋势产量的分离采用直线滑动平均模拟法。分析影响荔枝气象生理产量的关键气象因子,并建立线性回归预报方程。结果表明,预报方法对历年荔枝产量预报精度平均值可达90.52%,预报准确率基本可满足日常业务服务需求。研究成果可为政府部门实施乡村振兴战略、促进战略性支柱产业集群培养和推进荔枝品牌产业发展提供参考。Based on Litchi yield data and meteorological data from 1999 to 2018 in Zengcheng District, Guangzhou City,Guangdong Province, a study on prediction method of Litchi yield in Zengcheng was carried out. Litchi yield was decomposed into trend yield, meteorological-physiological yield and random noise(usually ignored). Trend yield was predicted by means of linear moving average simulation and harmonic weight method. Key meteorological factors which affected Litchi meteorological physiological yield were analyzed, and linear regression equation was established. Results showed that average precision of Litchi yield prediction over the years was 90. 52%, average precision could meet daily service demand. Research results could provide reference for government to implement rural revitalization strategy, promote cultivation of strategic pillar industry clusters, promote development of Litchi brand industry and increase income of Litchi growers.

关 键 词：增城 荔枝 气象因子 产量预报 

分 类 号：S162.54[农业科学—农业气象学]