国际干散货航运市场发展趋势研究——基于主变量-自回归模型的分析  

Research on the Development of Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market:Based on the Analysis of Key Variable-AR Model

作　　者：王大山 刘文白[1] WANG Da-shan;LIU Wen-bai(School of Economic&Management,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201602,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海201602

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2021年第4期83-88,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51078228);上海市研究生教育创新计划实施项目(20131129)。

摘　　要：文章建立基于主变量分析法为特征的波罗的海干散货指数(Baldic Dry Index,BDI)自回归模型,并通过寻找各同期主要变量之间及序列前后期主要变量间的回归关系,建立联立方程模型以推演国际干散货航运市场供需变化及BDI指数发展走势。同时通过观察当前市场存量运力的船龄与载重吨分布,对更长期的市场发展趋势作出方向性判断。研究发现:2020年已轻微失衡的供需基本面给后续几年的市场发展带来压力,而在2022年左右将逐步进入缓慢发展周期。直至2030—2035年,预计会有总计超过2.5亿载重吨的海岬型及巴拿马型老旧运力集中拆解,供需结构得到改善而迎来下一个繁荣周期。This paper establishes an autoregressive model of Baltic Dry Index(BDI)based on the principal variable analysis method,and establishes a simultaneous equation model to infer the supply and demand of the international dry bulk shipping market by looking for the regression relationship between the main variables in the same period and between the main variables in the early and late sequences.Change and development trend of BDI index.At the same time,by observing the ship age and deadweight tonnage distribution of the current market stock capacity,we make a directional judgment on the longer-term market development trend.The study found that the supply and demand fundamentals,which had been slightly unbalanced in 2020,put pressure on the market development in the following years,and will gradually enter a slow development cycle around 2022.Between 2030 and 2035,it is expected that a total of more than 250 million deadweight tons of Cape and Panama-type old capacity will be dismantled,and the supply and demand structure will be improved to usher in the next boom cycle.

关 键 词：国际干散货航运市场 BDI指数 主变量分析 自相关模型 联立方程模型 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济]