基于ISM-MICMAC模型的海外EPC总承包项目关键风险因素分析  

Analysis on Critical Risk Factors of Overseas EPC General Contracting Projects Based on ISM-MICMAC Model

作　　者：王佳佳 郝生跃[1] WANG Jiajia;HAO Shengyue(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《河南科学》2021年第3期509-516,共8页Henan Science

摘　　要：随着国家“走出去”战略和“一带一路”倡议的实施,越来越多的中国承包商以EPC模式承揽海外工程项目,准确识别与分析海外EPC总承包项目关键风险间的相互影响与层级关系至关重要.首先通过案例研究、文献分析和专家访谈识别出海外EPC总承包项目面临的15项关键风险因素,然后运用ISM-MICMAC方法构建了关键风险因素间的六级层次结构模型并进行分类,最后分析了各类风险因素间的相互作用关系并给出相应的风险管理建议.研究表明:海外EPC总承包项目的风险均为传导力强或依赖性强的风险,且各风险经过一定路径的传导放大,最终会导致合同风险和项目资金风险的发生.本研究在一定程度上为海外EPC总承包项目的管理工作提供了参考和借鉴.Along with the rapid implementation of“the Belt and Road”initiative and“going out”strategy,it will be of great significance to accurately identify and analyze the interaction and hierarchical relationship among critical risks of overseas EPC general contracting projects.Through case study,literature analysis and expert interviews,15 critical risk factors faced by overseas EPC general contracting projects are identified,and six level hierarchical structure model of critical risk factors is constructed and classified by using ISM-MICMAC method.Finally,the interaction between various risk factors is analyzed and corresponding risk management suggestions are given.The research shows that the risks of overseas EPC general contracting projects are all risks with strong transmission or strong dependence,and the risks will eventually lead to the occurrence of contract risks and project capital risks after transmission and amplification in a certain path.To a certain extent,this research provides reference for the management of overseas EPC general contracting projects.

关 键 词：海外EPC总承包项目 关键风险因素 解释结构模型 MICMAC分析 

分 类 号：TU71[建筑科学—建筑技术科学] F125[经济管理—世界经济]