粤东北汛期旱涝急转时空变化特征分析  

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics of Drought-flood Abrupt Alternation during Main Flood Season in Northeast Guangdong

作　　者：李思萍 钟东良 巫燕辉 曾思亮 叶小武 LI Siping;ZHONG Dongliang;WU Yanhui;ZENG Siliang;YE Xiaowu(Heyuan Bureau of Meteorology, Heyuan 517000, China)

机构地区：[1]河源市气象局,广东河源517000

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2021年第4期79-83,共5页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

基　　金：河源市气象局科学技术研究项目(编号:201910)。

摘　　要：基于粤东北12个国家气象站1965—2019年的月降雨量资料,通过定义汛期长周期旱涝急转指数(LDFAI)及强度,辅以线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和EOF分析等统计分析方法,分析了粤东北近55 a汛期旱涝急转时空分布特点及典型年份旱涝异常特征。结果表明:近55 a粤东北汛期长周期旱涝急转特征以涝转旱为主,通过筛选分析典型年份汛期旱涝异常事件得出相关认识;旱涝急转指数和强度的区域平均序列变化趋势不明显,指数的年际变化差异大、强度的年际变化较稳定并伴有阶段性的突变;旱涝急转指数以20世纪90年代以前差异最显著,20世纪90年代以后差异趋于减小;旱涝急转指数强度在1973年、1989年和2005年出现显著增大;粤东北汛期LDFAI年均值空间分布差异较大且均为负值(连平-5.25~丰顺-0.27),汛期旱涝急转指数EOF展开的第一特征向量空间分布呈自西北向东南减小的特点,河源地区旱涝急转强度较梅州地区更明显。Based on the monthly precipitation data from 12 national meteorological stations covering 1965-2019 in northeast Guangdong,this paper attempted to describe the analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation during main flood season and its abrupt alternation in typical years during the recent 55 years,by defining the LDFAI and its intensity in flood season,the climate diagnosis method were adopted,such as the methods of linear regression and analysis,Mann-Kendall and Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)method,etc..The results showed that the features of long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation during the main flood season of northeast Guangdong in recent 55 years was mainly from drought to flood,and the relevant understanding is obtained by screening and analyzing the abnormal drought-flood events happended in the flood season of typical years.The regional average sequence of LDFAI and its intensity in northeast Guangdong was not remarkable,but the differentia in interannual variation of LDFAI was obviously,while drought-flood abrupt intensity was stable and accompanied with periodic abrupt.The difference of LDFAI was obviously before 1990s,and tended to decrease after 1990s.The intensity of LDFAI has increased abruptly in 1973,1989 and 2005.The spatial distribution difference of LDFAI's annual average was obviously during the main flood season of northeast Guangdong,interval value was from-5.25(Lianping)to-0.27(Fengshun).The northeast Guangdong's LDFAI shows a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast in the EOF first eigenvector which account for the drought-flood abrupt intensity was more obviously in Heyuan than Meizhou.

关 键 词：长周期旱涝急转指数(LDFAI) 时空分布特征 旱涝异常 粤东北 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]