基于加权信息量和迭代自组织聚类的地质灾害易发性评价  

Geo-hazard Susceptibility Evaluation Based on Weighted Information Value Model and ISODATA Cluster

作　　者：陈绪钰[1] 倪化勇[2] 李明辉[1] 田凯[1] 宋志[1] 高延超[1] CHEN Xuyu;NI Huayong;LI Minghui;TIAN Kai;SONG Zhi(Chengdu Center of China Geological Survey,Chengdu 610081,China;Nanjing Center of China Geological Survey,Nanjing 210016,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质调查局成都地质调查中心,四川成都610081 [2]中国地质调查局南京地质调查中心,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《灾害学》2021年第2期71-78,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1505406);中国地质调查局项目(DD20160249、DD20190524);国家自然科学基金(41572294)。

摘　　要：以三峡库区忠县-方斗山地区为研究对象,首先选取坡度、坡向、坡高、岩土体类型、坡体结构、构造、水的作用、人类工程活动等8个评价因子建立地质灾害易发性评价指标体系,并对因子状态进行分级;然后,采用层次分析法计算各指标因子的权重,应用加权信息量模型进行地质灾害易发性评价;再者,利用迭代自组织聚类模型对地质灾害易发性评价结果进行分级区划;最后,对地质灾害易发性评价的精度进行定量评价。结果表明:地质灾害易发性评价结果与实际地质灾害发生的吻合度高、评价结果可靠、评价方法精度高、适用性强;岩土体类型、坡体结构、水的作用及人类工程活动是地质灾害发育的最主要控制因素;地质灾害易发性划分为极高易发、高易发、中易发、低易发、极低易发五个等级。建立的评价方法从权重确定和等级划分方面完善了地质灾害易发性评价理论体系,可为区域地质灾害易发性评价提供理论指导和技术参考。Taking the Zhongxian-Fangdoushan area in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as the research object,we firstly select 8 evaluation factors such as slope,slope direction,slope height,rock and soil type,slope structure,structure,water function and human engineering activities to establish evaluation index system for geo-hazard susceptibility.It classifies the factor state.Then,using AHP to calculate the weight of each index factor,weighted information value model is used to evaluate geo-hazard susceptibility.Furthermore,the iterative self-organizing clustering model is used to classify the results of geo-hazard susceptibility evaluation.Finally,the evaluation results are compared with the actual geo-hazards,and the accuracy of geo-hazard susceptibility evaluation is quantitatively evaluated.The results show that the susceptibility evaluation results of geo-hazards coincide with the actual occurrence of geo-hazards,the evaluation results are reliable,the evaluation methods have high accuracy and applicability.Rock and soil type,slope structure,water action and human engineering activities are the most important controlling factors for the development of geo-hazards.The established evaluation method improves the theoretical system of geo-hazard susceptibility evaluation,which can provide theoretical guidance and technical reference for regional geo-hazard susceptibility evaluation.The evaluation results can provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of geo-hazards and territorial spatial planning in this region.

关 键 词：地质灾害 易发性 层次分析法 加权信息量模型 迭代自组织聚类算法 三峡库区 

分 类 号：P642.4[天文地球—工程地质学] P642.5[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]