疫情防控的经济学分析——中国的经验及当代人给后代人留下的宝贵“遗产”  

Economic Analysis of Epidemic Prevention and Control--The Chinese Experience and the Precious“Legacy”Left by the Present Generation to the Future Generations

作　　者：方行明 鲁玉秀 米军 仵程宽 Fang Xingming;Lu Yuxiu;Mi Jun;Wu Chengkuan(National Economic Research Institute,School of Economics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 610074,China;School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学经济学院国民经济研究所,成都610074 [2]四川大学经济学院,成都610065

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2021年第5期122-129,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大专项招标项目“未来3~5年共建一带一路面临的机遇、风险和挑战研究”(项目编号:19VDL002)。

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情在多个国家爆发,本文将从经济学角度分析疫情防控与爆发的关键节点、矛盾核心。在疫情爆发后相当长的时期,人类对病毒的性质认识有限,存在着盲区,在信息不完全、不对称的条件下进行防控,因此在经济学上无法实现最优解,达不到最优控制,只能在疫情防控与当前经济利益之间进行权衡与抉择,即“生命”与“经济”之间的抉择,这种权衡或抉择就成为矛盾的核心,并引发人们对疫情防控理念的一系列矛盾和冲突。本文勾画出一个疫情演变与防控的线路图,将关键节点、矛盾核心以及各种防控措施的成效梳理清楚,总结出中国的经验,有利于人类认识疫情及对其防控的规律,也可作为当代人留给后代人的宝贵遗产。The COVID-19 epidemic has been occured in many countries and this paper will find out the key point and core contradiction of the epidemic control and outbreak.In the rather long period after the outbreak of the epidemic,human understanding of its nature is limited.There is a blind spot in people's cognition.Under the condition that the information is not complete and asymmetric,it is impossible to get an optimal solution in economics in controlling the epidemic,only balance or select between epidemic control and current economic interests or the select between“life”and“economy”,and this selection is the core contradiction which leads to a series of contradictions and conflicts on the concept of epidemic prevention and control.This paper outlines a road map of epidemic evolution and control to sort out key point and core contradiction as well as the effectiveness of various control measures,this is not only helpful for human to understand the epidemic situation and the law of its prevention and control,but also serves as a valuable legacy for future generations.

关 键 词：疫情 防控 关键节点 经济利益 中国经验 两害权衡 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F124.9