考虑参数不确定性的地下水污染源识别  

Identification of groundwater contamination sources considering parameter uncertainty

作　　者：李久辉[1,2,3] 卢文喜 常振波[1,2,3] 王涵 范越 LI Jiu-hui;LU Wen-xi;CHANG Zhen-bo;WANG Han;FAN Yue(Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment,Jilin University,Ministry of Education,Changchun 130021,China;Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment,Jilin University,Changchun 130021,China;College of New Energy and Environment,Jilin University,Changchun 130021,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学吉林省水资源与水环境重点实验室,吉林长春130012 [3]吉林大学新能源与环境学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2021年第4期1711-1722,共12页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41672232);吉林省科技发展项目(20170101066JC)。

摘　　要：为分析参数不确定性对地下水污染源识别的影响,本文通过模拟-优化方法、灵敏度分析方法、蒙特卡罗方法和克里格方法的综合运用,建立了描述渗透系数与污染物质释放强度之间关系的推算模型,进行了考虑参数不确定性的地下水污染源识别研究.研究结果表明,推算模型具有较高的精度,确定性系数和平均相对误差分别为0.9895和4.51%;运用推算模型推算了8000组渗透系数影响下的污染源识别结果,节省了约99%的计算负荷和时间;对8000组污染源识别结果进行了定量的统计与分析,得到了概率密度最大的污染源识别结果和置信水平分别为80%、60%、40%和20%对应的污染源识别结果置信区间.本研究改善了应用模拟-优化方法进行地下水污染源识别时,难以考虑参数不确定性的缺点,可以为决策者提供更多的参考依据.To analyze the influence of parameter uncertainty on the identification of groundwater contamination sources,a calculation model describing the relationship between hydraulic conductivity and contaminant release intensity was established through the comprehensive application of the simulation-based optimization method,sensitivity analysis method,Monte Carlo method and Kriging method.The results showed that the calculation model had high accuracy,the certainty coefficient and average relative error were 0.9895 and 4.51%,respectively;the contamination sources identification results under the influence of 8000 groups of hydraulic conductivity were calculated with the new model,which brought about 99%saving in the calculation load and time.Through quantitative statistical analysis of 8000 groups of contamination sources identification results,the contamination sources with the highest probability density were identified,along with the confidence intervals of contamination sources identification results corresponding to 80%,60%,40%and 20%.This study improved the applicability of simulation-based optimization method to identify groundwater contamination sources when facing the disadvantage caused by the parameter uncertainty,thus,can provide more reference for decision makers.

关 键 词：地下水污染源 模拟-优化 不确定性 替代模型 推算模型 

分 类 号：X523[环境科学与工程—环境工程]