PM_(2.5)污染对我国健康负担和经济损失的影响  

Influence of PM_(2.5)Pollution on Health Burden and Economic Loss in China

作　　者：李勇 廖琴[1,2] 赵秀阁 白云 陶燕[1] LI Yong;LIAO Qin;ZHAO Xiu-ge;BAI Yun;TAO Yan(Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education),College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,兰州730000 [3]中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012 [4]重庆工商大学管理科学与工程学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《环境科学》2021年第4期1688-1695,共8页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0206201);国家自然科学基金项目(71801044)。

摘　　要：开展全国范围归因于PM_(2.5)污染的健康负担和经济损失研究,对于污染防控政策至关重要.首先利用空气质量模型(WRF-Chem)模拟结果,分析2016年PM_(2.5)的时空分布和暴露水平;同时结合环境健康风险及环境价值评估方法,评估PM_(2.5)污染引起的健康负担和经济损失;最后基于情景分析方法,预估实现具体PM_(2.5)控制目标的健康经济效益.结果表明,2016年,我国PM_(2.5)污染主要集中在京津冀及周边地区、长三角地区、四川盆地以及西北沙漠地区,且71.49%的人口暴露在PM_(2.5)浓度高于35μg·m^(-3)的环境空气中;PM_(2.5)污染造成约106.04万人过早死亡,约占总死亡人数的10.9%,其中冠心病和中风约占80%;PM_(2.5)污染造成健康经济损失7 059.31亿元,约占国内生产总值(GDP)的0.95%. PM_(2.5)污染造成的健康负担和经济损失存在显著空间差异,主要分布在PM_(2.5)浓度和人口密度高的中东部地区;情景分析表明,我国所有地区PM_(2.5)浓度降至35μg·m^(-3),只能避免17.11%的健康经济损失,而降至10μg·m^(-3)可以带来80.47%的健康经济效益.建议环境管理者进一步加强控制力度,更好地保障居民的健康和财富利益,尤其是心脑血管疾病患者等敏感人群以及归因死亡率高的地区.Research on health and the economic losses caused by PM_(2.5)pollution nationwide is critical for pollution control planning.First,the spatiotemporal distribution of PM_(2.5)and exposure levels were simulated and analyzed using the air quality model(WRFChem)in China in 2016.Then,the health burden and economic loss caused by PM_(2.5)pollution were estimated using environmental health risk and environmental value assessment methods.Finally,the health and economic benefits from achieving specific PM_(2.5)control targets were estimated.In 2016 in China,high levels of PM_(2.5)were concentrated in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas,the Yangtze River Delta,the Sichuan Basin,and the desert areas in northwest China.Furthermore,71.49%of the total population of China was exposed to an environment with PM_(2.5)concentrations higher than 35μg·m^(-3).Subsequently,the national PM_(2.5)-related mortality was 1.06 million,accounting for 10.9%of the total deaths in China.Stroke and ischemic heart disease accounted for approximately 80%of the total PM_(2.5)-related deaths caused by the five diseases studied.Meanwhile,the PM_(2.5)pollution resulted in economic losses of 705.93 billion yuan,which was 0.95%of the Gross Domestic Product(GDP)in 2016.There were significant spatial differences in the health burden and economic loss,which primarily occurred in regions with high PM_(2.5)levels or population density.Moreover,reducing PM_(2.5)to 35μg·m^(-3)would only result in a 17.11%reduction in the health burden and economic loss,while a more exacting standard(reducing PM_(2.5)to 10μg·m-3)would bring 80.47%of the health and economic benefits.It is suggested that environmental managers further strengthen their control to better protect the health and wealth benefits of residents,especially for sensitive groups,such as patients with cardio-cerebrovascular diseases,particularly in areas with high premature mortality.

关 键 词：WRF-Chem模型 PM_(2.5)污染 过早死亡 经济损失 潜在效益 

分 类 号：X503.1[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X196