澳大利亚水权定价机制经验借鉴——基于墨累-达令流域水权交易数据实证分析  

REFERENCE FROM AUSTRALIA’S WATER RIGHTS PRICING EXPERIENCE BASED ON MURRY-DARLING STREAM WATER RIGHTS TRADING DATA

作　　者：罗冬梅 陈艳萍[1] 朱瑾 LUO Dongmei;CHEN Yanping;ZHU Jin(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100O,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《资源与产业》2021年第2期93-99,共7页Resources & Industries

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71774048);河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2018B41914)。

摘　　要：目前我国水权交易体系逐渐成熟,但水权交易中的核心问题即水权交易定价机制尚未形成合理标准。为了给我国水权交易价格改革提供理论依据,探索合理的水权交易价格,研究水权交易市场发展中可能出现的问题,本文借鉴澳大利亚水市场发展经验,选取2008年7月到2019年7月澳大利亚墨累-达令流域的地表水水权交易价格数据进行研究。在构建两区制、三阶滞后的马尔科夫区制转换模型的基础上,研究墨累-达令流域的水权交易价格在不同区制下的波动特征。研究结果表明:当地水权交易价格存在高波动和低波动状态,两种状态持续时间大致相同,且价格波动行为具有惯性,波动状态的变化不仅受自然条件变化影响,更和澳大利亚政府政策的实施密切相关。通过MS-VAR模型计算水权交易价格的预测值为交易双方和政府决策提供参考,政府应健全水权交易价格监督预警机制,保障水权交易价格的合理性。China’s water rights trading system is becoming mature,but its pricing as the key issue has not yet a rational standard.This paper,aiming at providing theoretical basis for reforming China’s water rights trading price and at exploring an appropriate price and at researching the possible issues in water rights trading market,selects Murry-Darling stream water rights trading data during July 2008 to July 2019 to establish a transferred bi-district and tri-lagging Markov model,which is used to study the fluctuated water rights trading price at different districts in Murry-Darling region.There are two statuses in water rights trading price,highly and lowly fluctuated,with almost same duration.Fluctuation of price is of inertance,not only subject to the changes of natural conditions,but also closely related to Australia’s policies.Predicted water rights trading price by MS-VAR model offers references for the both trading sides and for government to make decision.This paper presents suggestions on establishing a sound alerting system for water rights trading price to guarantee rational water rights trading price.

关 键 词：水权交易价格 墨累-达令流域 MS-VAR模型 澳大利亚 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]