基于合作博弈理论和马尔可夫过程融合的逆变器故障率动态分析  

FAILURE RATE DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF INVERTER BASED ON FUSION OF COOPERATIVE GAME THEORY AND MARKOV PROCESS

作　　者：赵峰[1,2] 周正龙 高锋阳 刘宇轩[1] Zhao Feng;Zhou Zhenglong;Gao Fengyang;Liu Yuxuan(School of Automation and Electrical,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Jiaoda Engineering Testing Technology Co.,Ltd.,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学自动化与电气工程学院,兰州730070 [2]甘肃交达工程检测科技有限公司,兰州730070

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2021年第3期353-357,共5页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：甘肃省重点研发计划(18YF1FA058);兰州市人才创新创业项目(2017-RC-95)。

摘　　要：以光伏并网系统中三相电压型PWM逆变器为例,采用合作博弈理论和马尔可夫过程融合的故障率分析方法。首先,根据逆变器的基本工作原理,通过引入马尔可夫过程,得到逆变器工作状态转移概率图和转移概率矩阵,并设定转移概率矩阵的初始表达形式;然后,获得转移概率矩阵中关键元素m、n的3组常规不同值,并采用合作博弈理论确定m、n的最优值,结合m、n的4组不同值,构建4种不同子模型进行电路故障率对比分析;最后,用Matlab软件对4种子模型下的电路故障率进行动态仿真,并使用相关统计数据验证仿真过程。结果表明,所采用的方法能够准确反映逆变器故障率的动态变化情况,对实现逆变器状态修具有积极意义。Taking the three-phase voltage-type PWM(Pulse Width Modulation)inverter in photovoltaic grid-connected system as an example,the failure rate analysis method with fusion of cooperative game theory and the Markov process is adopted. Firstly,according to the basic working principle of the inverter,by introducing the Markov process,the transition state probability diagram and the transition probability matrix of the inverter are obtained,and the initial expression form of the transition probability matrix is set. Then,three sets of conventional different values of key elements m and n of the transition probability matrix are gained,and the optimal values of m and n are determined by cooperative game theory. Combining the four sets of different values of m and n,four different sub-models are constructed for comparative analysis of circuit failure rate. Finally,the circuit failure rate under four sub-models is simulated dynamically in Matlab software,and the simulation process is verified by using relevant statistical data. The results shown that the method can reflect the dynamic changes of the failure rate of the inverter so precisely that it has a positive significance for the state repair of inverter.

关 键 词：逆变器 马尔可夫过程 故障率 动态分析 合作博弈 

分 类 号：TM464[电气工程—电器]