资金流量存量核算与金融风险的文献综述——基于虚拟经济的视角  

A Literature Review on Capital Flow Stock Accounting and Financial Risks:Based on the Perspective of Fictitious Economy

作　　者：刘晓欣[1] 熊丽 Liu Xiaoxin;Xiong Li(School of Economics,Political Economy Research Center,Fictitious Economy and Management Research Center,Nankai University;School of Economics,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院、政治经济学研究中心、虚拟经济与管理研究中心 [2]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《政治经济学评论》2021年第2期3-21,共19页China Review of Political Economy

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九届四中全会精神国家社科基金重大项目“深度开放下外部金融冲击应急系统研究”(20ZDA101)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：资金流量存量核算与金融风险的关系已受到众多学者关注,但学界对这一问题尚未进行系统性梳理并取得整体认知。本文通过回顾资金流量核算、资金存量核算、间接测算的金融中介服务、存量流量一致性理论模型等分析金融风险的相关文献发现,现有资金流量存量核算中,存在忽视名义变量和交易量、将金融风险计为GDP的增长、对存量流量一致性理论模型的恒等式背后的逻辑关系存在分歧、忽视流量存量瞬间转换中的风险释放、探讨风险传导机制的前提假定偏离现实等问题,因此,现行资金流量存量统计核算制度不仅难以实现对风险的准确刻画,还掩盖甚至在一定程度上助长了金融风险,无法为控制金融风险和调控宏观经济提供依据。为了解决资金流量存量核算在反映金融风险时存在的上述问题,本文基于虚拟经济的视角,提出构建"动态全相资金流量存量及金融风险实时监测系统"以实现对金融风险的有效控制。The relationship between capital flow stock accounting and financial risks has received much attention from scholars,but it has not yet been systematically sorted out and concluded by the academic community.This paper reviews the literature on capital flow accounting,capital stock accounting,FISIM,and the stock-flow consistent theory model in analyzing financial risk,and finds that the existing capital flow stock accounting ignores nominal variables and transaction variables,counts financial risk as the growth of GDP,has confusion about the logical relationship behind the identical equation of the stock-flow consistent theoretical model,ignores the risks during the transition between capital flow and stock and has some presuppositions deviating from the reality.Therefore,the current accounting system of capital flow and stock not only makes it difficult to achieve an accurate portrayal of financial risks,but also makes or even contributes to financial risks to a certain extent.Actually,it cannot provide a basis for controlling financial risks and regulating the macroeconomy.Finally,in order to solve the above-mentioned problems,this paper proposes to build a"dynamic panoramic capital flow stock and financial risk real-time monitoring system"based on the perspective of fictitious economy to achieve the effective control of financial risks.

关 键 词：资金流量存量 金融中介服务 存量流量一致性理论模型 金融风险 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]