碳排放权交易是否“加速”降低了碳排放量和碳强度?  

Does Carbon Emissions Trading“Accelerate”the Reduction of Carbon Emissions and Carbon Intensity?

作　　者：姬新龙 杨钊 JI Xin-long;YANG Zhao(School of Finance,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学金融学院,兰州730020

出　　处：《商业研究》2021年第2期46-55,共10页Commercial Research

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划软科学专项项目,项目编号:20CX9ZA049;兰州财经大学绿色金融创新研究团队项目,项目编号:2020CXTD09;黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目,项目编号:19JYB026。

摘　　要：作为应对气候变化的一种经济手段,我国的碳交易即将从“试点”走向“全国”,“十四五”时期不仅是全面碳交易时代更是碳减排的关键阶段。为了更好发挥全国性碳排放权交易市场的减排作用,本文以六个试点碳交易市场及其政策运行为“经验”,基于2000至2017年的省级面板数据,使用动态DID和PSM-DID模型对其实际减排效果进行对比实证。结果发现:(1)我国当前碳排放总量与人均量呈地域分布差异的特征,碳排放量的平均水平也呈明显的上升趋势,碳排放量和碳强度在试点和非试点地区呈两极分化之势;(2)碳交易政策的实施有显著的碳排放抑制作用,能够“加速”降低碳排放量和碳强度,且减排效果逐年增加没有时滞性;(3)与非试点地区相比,碳交易很大程度上加强了试点地区企业技术创新的动力和政府环境规制的力度。基于上述“试点”地区的经验,碳排放权交易全国推广后的一至四年将是发挥减排作用的关键阶段,各省区要确保政策有效落地,全面公开减排信息,因地制宜地优化碳交易配套制度体系。As an economic means to deal with climate change,China′s carbon trading is about to move from“pilot”to“national”.The“fourteenth five year plan”period is not only the era of comprehensive carbon trading,but also the key stage of carbon emissions reduction.In order to better play the role of national carbon emissions trading market,this paper takes six pilot carbon trading markets and their policy operation as the“experience”,based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017,uses dynamic did and PSM-DID model to compare the actual emissions reduction effect.The results show that:(1)the current total carbon emissions and per capita emissions in China are different in regional distribution,and the average level of carbon emissions also shows a significant upward trend,and carbon emissions and carbon intensity are polarizing in pilot and non pilot areas;(2)The implementation of carbon trading policy has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions,can“accelerate”the reduction of carbon emissions and carbon intensity,and the effect of emissions reduction increases year by year without time lag;(3)Compared with the non pilot areas,carbon trading to a large extent strengthens the power of technological innovation of enterprises and the strength of government environmental regulation in the pilot areas.Based on the experience of the above“pilot”areas,one to four years after the national promotion of carbon emissions trading will be the key stage to play the role of emissions reduction.All provinces and regions should ensure the effective implementation of policies,fully disclose emissions reduction information,and optimize the supporting system of carbon trading according to local conditions.

关 键 词：碳交易政策 PSM-DID模型 碳排放 减排差异 

分 类 号：F831.4[经济管理—金融学]