TIGGE多模式降水预报产品检验与集成研究  

Verification and integration of TIGGE multimode precipitation forecast products

作　　者：舒章康 汪琳 金君良[1,2,3] 王国庆 曹民雄[1,2,3] SHU Zhangkang;WANG Lin;JIN Junliang;WANG Guoqing;CAO Minxiong(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Yangtze River Protection and Green Development Research Institute,Nanjing 210098,China;Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098 [3]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2021年第2期10-19,共10页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404401);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779144,51679144,51879164);中央公益性科研院所基本业务费资助项目(Y220011,Y520025)。

摘　　要：数值预报产品的检验与集成是使用和发展数值预报的重要环节。以TIGGE数据中心的NCEP、ECMWF、JMA和KMA等4种模式控制预报产品为基础资料,选取福建池潭水库流域为研究对象,从降水分级预报、降水量级和过程预报等方面对数值预报产品进行了综合评估,同时采用回归集成、TS集成和Nash系数集成等3种方法对多模式产品开展了降水集成预报,在此基础上,探讨了不同集成方法对最终降水预报效果的影响。结果表明,4种产品对无雨和小雨的预报效果均较好,在不同量级降水预报中,JMA模式更适合于25 mm以下量级的降水预报,而ECMWF对25 mm以上量级的降水预报效果较好。对于日降水量预报,NCEP模式的预报效果较差,而ECMWF模式的预报相对更准确。对于降水过程预报,KMA的预测性能则明显差于其他3个模型。集成预报对降低预报误差并提高降水过程预报有较好的效果,其中针对不同量级分类加权的TS集成方法预报效果最优,且提升了高量级降水预测效果。Verification and integration of numerical weather prediction(NWP)products is an important step in the application and development of numerical prediction.Based on the NCEP,ECMWF,JMA and KMA NWP models from TIGGE center,the basin of Chitan Reservoir in Fujian province was selected as the research object,the multimodal precipitation forecast products were evaluated from the aspects of precipitation classification forecast,precipitation level and process forecast comprehensively.Meanwhile,three methods of regression integration,TS integration and Nash coefficient integration were used to integrate multimodal precipitation forecast products,and the influence of different integration methods on the final precipitation forecast effect was discussed.The results show that the four products had good prediction effect for both no rain and light rain events.In the precipitation forecast of different magnitudes,the JMA model was the best for the precipitation forecast of the magnitude less than 25 mm,but the prediction of ECMWF for precipitation over 25 mm was better.For the daily precipitation forecast,the NCEP model had a poor performance,while the ECMWF model was the most accurate.For the precipitation process forecast,the prediction performance of KMA was obviously worse than the other three models.The integrated forecast had a good effect on reducing the prediction error and improving the precipitation process forecast,among which the TS integrated method weighted by different magnitudes had the best forecast effect,and had better improved the prediction effect of high level precipitation events.

关 键 词：数值天气预报 TIGGE 综合评估 多模式集成 

分 类 号：P459.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P339[天文地球—水文科学]