预警指标集构建路径研究——以印巴冲突为例  

A Path to Constructing an Early Warning Indicator Set——Taking the India-Pakistan Conflict as an Example

作　　者：廖芃鑫 马晓娟 闻杰 Liao Pengxin;Ma Xiaojuan;Wen Jie(International Studies College,NUDT,Nanjing 210039)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学国际关系学院,南京210039

出　　处：《情报杂志》2021年第4期82-91,共10页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：上级赋予项目“战略情报预测分析方法研究”成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]预警是情报分析工作的核心与难点。有效识别征候是成功预警的前提,一组有效的指标集合又是征候识别的基本依据,征候识别的精准度、对征候价值判断的准确性均需以精确的指标为参照。所以,探究预警监控指标集的构建方法是进行正确预警的基础性工作。[方法/过程]在前人理论研究的基础上,通过综合归纳与案例演绎的方法,在明确了"指标""征候"等预警基本概念及指标来源的基础上,设计提出了指标集的构建流程,明确了指标集的构建原则。[结果/结论]通过从巴基斯坦为防御国的视角出发,以印巴冲突为例,探究预警指标集的构建路径,基本确认了预警指标集"确定指标来源、提取指标、指标效度验证"的构建流程,明确了各流程的操作方法并探讨了该构建流程的普适性作用,为预警指标集构建路径在其他预测性领域的运用、预警指标体系与智能技术的结合提供了参考和依据。[Purpose/Significance]Early warning is the core and difficult point of intelligence analysis.Effective identification of indications is a prerequisite for early warning,and the set of effective indicators is the basic basis for indication identification.The precision of indication identification and the accuracy of judgment on the value of indications need to be referred to precise indicators.Therefore,exploring the construction method of early warning monitoring indicator set is the basic work for correct early warning.[Method/Process]In this paper,based on the previous theoretical research,the construction process of indicator set is designed and proposed through the method of comprehensive induction and case deduction,based on the clarification of the basic concepts of early warning such as"indicators"and"indications"and the sources of indicators.The principles of constructing indicator sets were also clarified.[Result/Conclusion]By exploring the path of constructing an early warning indicator set from the perspective of Pakistan as a defense state and taking the India-Pakistan conflict as an example,we basically confirmed the process of constructing an early warning indicator set by identifying the source of indicators,extracting indicators,and verifying the validity of indicators,clarified the operation methods of each process,and explored the universality of the construction process.It provides a reference and basis for the application of the construction path of early warning indicator set in other predictive fields and the combination of early warning indicator system and intelligent technology.

关 键 词：情报分析 战略预警 战略突袭 指标与征候分析法 预警指标集 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]