基于有限理性用户选择行为的定制化电价套餐设计  

Customized Electricity Price Package Design Based on Limited Rational User Selection Behavior

作　　者：肖白[1] 崔涵淇 姜卓[2] 赵栩[3] 孙立国 XIAO Bai;CUI Hanqi;JIANG Zhuo;ZHAO Xu;SUN Liguo(School of Electrical Engineering,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012,Jilin Province,China;School of Computer Science and Technology,Beihua University,Jilin 132021,Jilin Province,China;School of Electrical&Information Engineering,Changchun Institute of Technology,Changchun 130012,Jilin Province,China;Jiutai Power Plant,Huaneng Jilin Power Generation Co.,Ltd.,Changchun 130501,Jilin Province,China)

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林省吉林市132012 [2]北华大学计算机科学技术学院,吉林省吉林市132021 [3]长春工程学院电气与信息学院,吉林省长春市130012 [4]华能吉林发电有限公司九台电厂,吉林省长春市130501

出　　处：《电网技术》2021年第3期1050-1058,共9页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0902200);吉林省产业创新专项基金项目(2019C058-7);吉林省教育厅科技项目(JJKH20180442KJ)。

摘　　要：利用电力需求响应机制,通过引导用户主动参与电网调峰,能够提高用户和电网互动的积极性、减轻电网峰时供电压力。针对各电力用户因其用电差异性而需要不同的电价套餐,且电力用户选择电价套餐的决策行为普遍是有限理性而非完全理性的,该决策行为存在演化博弈过程的特点,提出了一种考虑有限理性用户选择行为的定制化电价套餐设计方法。首先,采用K-means算法对电力用户的日负荷曲线的负荷特征指标对其进行聚类分析,并生成聚类后的每一类用户的典型负荷曲线,利用模糊理论根据各典型负荷曲线确定各套餐的用电曲线;其次,通过熵权法计算用户效用,并在此基础上应用演化博弈理论计算用户在有限理性情况下的套餐选择比例;然后,建立售电公司和供电公司之间的双边协商购电合同模型;最后,在保障售电公司市场占有率和用户满意度的前提下,以实现售电公司和用户的双赢为目标,建立面向有限理性用户的定制化电价套餐模型。算例结果证明了所提方法及模型的合理性和可行性。By using the power demand response mechanism and leading users to actively participate in the peak load regulation of the power grid,the enthusiasm of users to interact with the power grid will be better stimulated and the power supply pressure during the peak hours will be greatly reduced.For different power users need different pricing packages because of their different power demands,and their decision-making behavior in selecting the pricing packeges is generally boundedly rational rather than fully rational,i.e.such behavior has the features of the evolutionary game process,this paper proposes a customized pricing packages design for the limited rational user choice behavior.First of all,the k-means algorithm is used to cluster the load characteristic indexes of the daily load curve of the power users,and the typical load curve of each type of the users is generated after the clustering.So the power consumption curve of each package is determined according to the typical load curve by using the fuzzy theory.Secondly,the entropy weight method is used to calculate the utility of the users,and the evolutionary game theory is used to calculate the proportion of their package selection in the case of bounded rationality.Then,the model of power purchase contract between the power selling supplying companies is established.Finally,on the premise of guaranteeing the market shares of and the users’satisfaction with the power selling companies,in order to achieve the goal of maximum win-win profits for both the power selling companies and the users,a customized electricity price package model is established for the boundedly rational users.The results of an example prove the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method and model.

关 键 词：有限理性用户 定制化电价套餐 双边协商合同 演化博弈 需求响应 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]