欧洲中心集合预报产品在西藏降水预报中的解释应用  

Interpretation and Application of European Central Ensemble Forecast Products for Tibetan Precipitation Weather Forecast

作　　者：次旦巴桑 赤曲 普布卓玛 德庆卓嘎 Tsetan-Pasang;Chiqu Pubu-Zhuoma;Deqing-Zhuoga(Tibet Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory Lhasa,Lhasa 850000,China;Tibet Ali Meteorological Observatory,Ali 859000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区气象台,西藏拉萨850000 [2]西藏阿里气象台,西藏阿里859000

出　　处：《高原科学研究》2021年第1期18-26,共9页Plateau Science Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(11775180);西藏自治区重点科技计划项目(XZ201703-GA-02)。

摘　　要：集合预报系统不仅给出单一的最佳可能预报,还能定量地预估天气预报的不确定性。文章利用欧洲中期天气预报中心集合预报产品,采用双线性插值法将集合降水预报格点场插值到西藏39个观测站点上,并对其结果计算集合成员的算术平均和标准差(离散度),发现集合预报对冬季24小时降水量≥5 mm的强降雪预估偏弱,特别是日喀则、山南和昌都的表现尤为明显;根据各季节降水的集合离散度发现,集合预报对低海拔可预报性差,夏季不确定性更高。Ensemble forecast system can not only provide single best possible forecast,but also predict the un⁃certainty of weather forecast quantitatively.In this paper,a ensemble forecast products of the European Center for medium range weather forecast is used to interpolate the grid field of ensemble precipitation forecast for 39 observation stations located in Tibet by applying bilinear interpolation method.Moreover,the arithmetic mean and standard deviation(dispersion)of the members of the ensemble forecast products are calculated,the distribu⁃tion of the forecast error is analyzed,and the meaningful forecast index is extracted.According to our results,it is found that the 24-hour heavy precipitation forecast for winter shows significant bias,especially for the areas such as Shigatse,Lhoka and Qamdo.And it is also found that the ensemble dispersion of seasonal precipitation shows poor predictability for low altitude areas with higher uncertainty for summer.

关 键 词：EC集合预报 强降水 一般性降水 TS评分 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]