研究方案设计影响区域水环境库兹涅茨曲线形状  

Designs of study scheme controlling shapes of environmental Kuznets curve on regional water environmental quality

作　　者：丁月 王伟民 田琳静 王子康 高静 许新瑶 董雪 蒲晓[1] DING Yue;WANG Weimin;TIAN Linjing;WANG Zikang;GAO Jing;XU Xinyao;DONG Xue;PU Xiao(College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048

出　　处：《首都师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第2期50-56,共7页Journal of Capital Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金面上项目(8172015);生态环境部环境规划院统筹环境与经济协调发展项目(2018A081)。

摘　　要：对水环境质量与经济发展之间关系的库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)的研究,有利于针对性地减缓处于不同发展阶段区域水环境的退化问题.然而EKC形状在不同研究中结论不一致,其中研究方案设计差异的影响尚不明确.本研究收集整理已发表的水环境质量与经济发展关系相关研究案例,基于这些案例方案设计的差异以及EKC形状的区别,总结研究区范围、研究时长、水环境指标和回归方法4个设计方案的状况,对EKC形状进行归纳分类,建立4个方案设计因素与EKC形状的logistic回归模型,并通过贝叶斯判别分析完成对EKC形状的判别.结果显示,研究时长、水环境指标和回归方法显著影响EKC形状,研究区范围对EKC形状的影响不大,表明研究方案设计对EKC形状的呈现具有重要作用.因此,在进行相关研究时,应注意研究时长、水环境指标和回归方法这3个因素的设定可能导致不同结果.Studies on environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)between water environmental quality and economic development are beneficial to mitigate water degradation of regions at different development stages.However,the EKC shape is inconsistent in different studies,and the impact of the differences in research plan design is not clear.This study collects and collates related published case studies.Based on the differences of plan design and EKC shape in these cases,this study summarizes the status of the four design factors,the scale of study area,study duration,water environment indicator and regression method,the EKC shape is summarized and classified.In this study,a logistic regression model of the four design factors and the EKC shape is established and completed,the EKC shape is judged by Bayesian discriminant analysis.The results show that the study duration,water environment indicators,and regression methods significantly affect the shape of EKC,and the scale of study area has little effect on the shape of EKC,indicating that the design of the research plan has an important role in the presentation of EKC shape.In related research,it should be noted that the setting of the three factors of study duration,water environment indicator and regression method may lead to different results.

关 键 词：环境库兹涅茨曲线 水环境质量 经济发展 LOGISTIC回归 贝叶斯判别 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]