基于区间数决策矩阵的堤防安全综合评价方法及应用  

Comprehensive Evaluation Method and Application of Dike Safety Based on Interval Number Decision Matrix

作　　者：程鑫[1] 朱光华[2] 王世杰[1] 胡少华[1,3] CHENG Xin;ZHU Guang-hua;WANG Shi-jie;HU Shao-hua(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;Fujian Provincial Investigation,Design and Research Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydro power,Fuzhou 350001,China;National Dam Safety Engineering Technology Research Center,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]福建省水利水电勘测设计研究院,福建福州350001 [3]国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第4期141-145,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心开放基金(CX2019B014);国家自然科学基金项目(51609184)。

摘　　要：鉴于堤防工程结构复杂、运行条件变幅大,存在失事风险,基于后果逆向扩散法,建立了综合考虑堤防各种失事形式的单目标、多层次、半结构型评价指标体系,并构建了堤防安全综合评价方法,该方法通过引入区间数理论,结合层次分析法、熵值法确定评价指标的主客观权重,依据集值统计进行区间打分,最后基于幂指数法得到堤防安全综合评价值。对武汉市长江堤防的安全评价结果表明,基于区间数决策矩阵的堤防安全综合评价方法实用性好、区分度高,能真实反映堤防安全状况,具有较强的工程指导意义。In view of the complex structure of the embankment project and large changes in operating conditions,there is a risk of accident.Based on the consequence reverse diffusion method,a single-objective,multi-level,semi-structured evaluation index system that comprehensively considers various forms of dike failures has been established,and a comprehensive evaluation method of dike safety has been constructed.Through the introduction of interval number theory,combined with analytic hierarchy process and entropy method is used to determine the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indicators.The interval scoring is based on set value statistics.Finally,the comprehensive evaluation value of dike safety is obtained based on the power index method.The safety evaluation results of the Yangtze River embankment in Wuhan show that the comprehensive evaluation method of embankment safety based on the interval number decision matrix has good practicability and high discrimination,can truly reflect the safety status of the embankment,and has strong engineering guiding significance.

关 键 词：堤防工程 安全评价 后果逆向扩散法 区间数 集值统计法 幂指数 

分 类 号：TV871[水利工程—水利水电工程]