中美贸易争端对中国进口干散货航运价格的影响研究  

Research on the impact of Sino-US trade disputes on China's im ported dry bulk shipping prices

作　　者：王天姿 陈彦晖[1] WANG Tian-zi;CHEN Yan-hui(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai,201306)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《价格月刊》2021年第4期8-16,共9页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于异质市场假说的波动率指数预测及其应用研究”(编号:71701127)

摘　　要：干散货运输市场与全球经济发展息息相关。重大政治、经济事件的冲击会改变干散货运输市场的供求关系,进而影响运输价格。首先运用ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1)模型分析了中美贸易争端对中国进口干散货航运价格波动性的影响,然后通过事件研究法分别探究了中美贸易争端中负向冲击事件和正向冲击事件对中国进口干散货航运价格的短期影响。结果表明:首先,中国进口干散货航运价格的波动率随中美贸易争端的升级而变大;其次,中国进口干散货航运市场对中美贸易争端有预期,航运价格在事前就有所反应;再次,与正向冲击事件相比,负向冲击事件对中国进口干散货航运价格的影响更大,持续时间更长;最后,中国进口煤炭航运价格受到的冲击大于进口大豆和镍矿。The dry bulk shipping market is closely related to global economic development.The impact of major political and economic events will change the supply—demand relationship in the dry bulk transportation market,thereby affecting transportation prices.This paper used the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1)model to analyze the impact of Sino—US trade disputes on the volatility of China's imported dry bulk shipping prices,and then through the event research method,respectively explored the short-term impact of negative shock events and positive shock events on China’s imported dry bulk shipping prices on the Sino—US trade disputes.The results show that:the volatility of China's imported dry bulk shipping prices has increased with the escalation of Sino—US trade disputes;China’s imported dry bulk shipping market has expectations for Sino—US trade disputes,and shipping prices have reacted beforehand;compared with positive shock events,negative shock events have a greater impact on China’s imported dry bulk shipping prices and last longer;China’s imported coal shipping prices are more impacted than imported soybeans and nickel ore.

关 键 词：中美贸易争端 中国进口干散货航运价格 事件研究法 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]