美中科技“脱钩”对中国高新技术产品出口的影响  

The impact of US-China science and technology“decoupling”on the export of China’s high-tech products

作　　者：聂世坤 周海云 NIE Shi-kun;ZHOU Hai-yun(School of International Economics and International Relations,Liaoning University,Shenyang,Liaoning,110036;School of Foreign Languages,Bengbu University,Bengbu,Anhui,233030)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学国际经济政治学院,辽宁沈阳110036 [2]蚌埠学院外国语学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《价格月刊》2021年第4期51-61,共11页

基　　金：安徽哲社规划青年项目“‘一带一路’建设中安徽跨境电商发展与金融支持研究”(编号:AHSKQ2016D138);安徽高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(编号:SK2019A0712);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(编号:L13BJL020)。

摘　　要：面对中国先进制造业的崛起,2018年以来特朗普政府积极推动对华科技"脱钩",意在维护美国全球科技领先地位。不过,在对华关系上更为理性的拜登当选美国总统后,其有可能以"选择性脱钩""渐进式脱钩"及"围堵式脱钩"取代特朗普的全面"脱钩"。依据这一判断,分析了美中科技"脱钩"对中国高新技术产品出口的影响,指出该影响更多地体现在东部地区ICT产业的对外发展上,尤其是民营企业对发达经济体的ICT出口贸易可能面临更大挑战。虽然如此,但由于对东亚主要经济体的出口受冲击较小,且高技术制造业外资持续流入,预判美中科技"脱钩"对中国高新技术产品出口规模的影响有限。然而,高技术服务业吸收外资大幅下降,预示跨国公司技术转移步伐放缓,产品升级动力可能因两国科技博弈而减弱。In the face of the rise of China’s advanced manufacturing industry, the Trump government has actively promoted the "decoupling" with China’s science and technology since 2018, with the intention of maintaining the US’s position as a global technology leader. However, after Biden, who is more rational in his relations with China, is elected president of the United States, he may replace Trump’s comprehensive "decoupling" with "selective decoupling", "gradual decoupling",and "containment decoupling". Based on the judgment, this paper analyzes the impact of US-China science and technology "decoupling" on the export of China’s high-tech products, and points out that the impact is more reflected in the external development of the ICT industry in the eastern region, especially the ICT export trade of private enterprises to developed economies may face greater challenges. Even so, due to the small impact on exports to the main economies of East Asia and the continuous inflow of foreign capital in high-tech manufacturing industry, the impact of "decoupling" of US-China science and technology on the export scale of China’s high-tech products is limited. However, the absorption of foreign capital by the high-tech service industry has dropped sharply, indicating that the pace of technology transfer by multinational companies has slowed down, and the motivation for product upgrades may be weakened by the technological game between the two countries.

关 键 词：中美经济关系 国家安全 科技“脱钩” 高新技术产品 ICT产业 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]