民间金融与农民收入的动态关系——以安徽宣城为例  

The Dynamic Relations between Private Finance and Farmers’ Income:A Case Study of Xuancheng,Anhui Province

作　　者：刘炯 吴海琴 LIU Jiong;WU Haiqin(Department of Tourism and Commerce,Xuancheng Vocational and Technical College,Xuancheng,Anhui 242000,China)

机构地区：[1]宣城职业技术学院旅游商贸系,安徽宣城242000

出　　处：《西昌学院学报（自然科学版）》2021年第1期22-26,共5页Journal of Xichang University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：安徽省高校人文社会科学研究项目重点资助项目(SK2019A0958);安徽省高校质量工程资助项目(2017JXTD080);宣城职业技术学院科研振兴基金资助项目(ZXTS2018010)。

摘　　要：基于VAR模型计量分析宣城市这一特定区域民间金融与农民收入之间的动态关系,旨在促进农民收入增长进而加快"三农"问题的解决。协整检验表明,民间金融与农民收入保持长期稳定的均衡关系;格兰杰因果检验表明,民间金融与农民收入互为因果关系;脉冲响应函数分析表明,农民收入对民间金融冲击的反应是负向的,民间金融对农民收入冲击的反应是正向的;方差分解表明,民间金融对农民收入的影响大于农民收入对其本身的影响,民间金融对其自身的影响亦大于农民收入对民间金融的影响。基于研究结果,提出了完善农村正规金融体系,对民间金融分类管理,提高农村经济效率等政策建议。Based on VAR model,this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between private finance and farmers’income in Xuancheng City in order to promote the growth of farmers’income and speed up the solution of issues in relation to agriculture,rural and farmer.Cointegration test shows that private finance and farmers’income maintain a long-term stable and balanced relationship;Granger causality test shows that private finance and farmers’income are cause and effect to each other;Impulse response function analysis shows that the response of farmers’income to the impact of private finance is negative,and the response of private finance to the impact of farmers’income is positive;variance decomposition shows that the impact of private finance on farmers’income is greater than that of farmers’income on itself,and the impact of private finance on itself is greater than that of farmers’income on it.Based on the above conclusions,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as regularizing rural financial system,classified management of private finance,and improving the efficiency of rural economy.

关 键 词：民间金融 农民收入 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数分析 方差分解 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学] F323.8