长江上游流域水位长期变化特征分析  

Analysis of the Long-Term Variation Characteristics of Water Level in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River

作　　者：施艾琳 覃军[1] 陈正洪 SHI Ai-lin;QIN Jun;CHEN Zheng-hong(Department of Atmospheric Science,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Hubei Meteorological Service Center,Wuhan 430205,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学环境学院大气科学系,湖北武汉430074 [2]湖北省气象服务中心,湖北武汉430205

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2021年第2期361-370,共10页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFA0605603)。

摘　　要：长江上游地区的水能资源对于我国能源发展具有重要意义,研究长江上游水文的周期和突变规律,可以提前预防旱涝灾害给农业带来的损失。利用线性回归方法对长江上游清溪场水文站的水位资料进行插补延长,然后用小波分析方法和Mann-Kendall方法对三峡大坝蓄水前的1890~2002年旱季1~3月份和雨季6~8月份的水位序列的周期性、阶段性和突变特征进行了比较分析。结果表明:(1)旱季水位在1890~1940年偏高,1940~2002年偏低;雨季水位在1965年以后持续偏低。(2)清溪场水文站旱季的水位存在5~8年的年际变化主周期,其中1900~1950年间5~8年的周期变化是显著的;清溪场水文站雨季水位的主周期为35年左右的年代际变化周期,1940~1960年存在8年左右的年际变化显著周期。(3)旱季水位在1933年发生突变,1933年以后水位由高向低转变,1940年以后水位持续偏低;雨季水位在1957年以后水位由高变低,1965年水位下降趋势加大,到1993年雨季水位显著降低,1997年以后雨季水位有升高的趋势。(4)长江上游流域面雨量与清溪场水位变化趋势相一致,明清小冰期东亚夏季风偏弱长江上游气候偏湿润水位整体较高,20世纪30年代、40年代全球气候相对变暖而东亚夏季风偏强,导致雨带偏北,长江上游气候转而偏干水位整体偏低。Water energy resources in the upper reaches of the Yangtze river are of great significance for China’s energy development. Studying the hydrological cycle and abrupt change rule of water levels in upper reaches of the Yangtze river can prevent the agricultural losses caused by drought and waterlogging in advance. The linear regression method is used to interpolate and extend the water level data of Qingxichang hydrological station in the upper reaches of Yangtze River. Then, the periodicity and catastrophe characteristics of the water level series in the dry season(Jan. to Mar.)and the rainy season(Jun. to Aug.)from 1890 to 2002 are compared and analyzed by wavelet analysis method and Mann-Kendall method. The results show that:(1)The water level in the dry season was higher from 1890 to 1940 and lower from 1940 to 2002;the water level changed frequently in rainy season and remained low after 1965;(2)The water level in dry season has a 5-8 years interannual periodic variation, and is significant from 1900 to 1950. The main cycle of the water level in the rainy season is the decadal change cycle of about 35 years, and there is a significant annual change cycle of about 8 years from 1940 to 1960;(3)During the dry season, the water level changed from high to low after 1933, it continued to be low after 1940. In the rainy season, the water level changed from high to low after 1957, it decreased more in 1965,the water level decreased significantly by the year 1993 and increased after 1997;(4)The changing trend of the surface rainfall in the upper reaches of Yangtze River is consistent with the changing trend of water level in Qingxichang hydrological station. The East Asian summer monsoon was weak and the climate in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River was wet during the small ice age of Ming and Qing Dynasties, and the water level was high as a whole. In the 1930 s and 1940 s, the global climate was relatively warm, and the East Asian strong summer wind leads to the rain belt locating partial north, the upper reac

关 键 词：长江上游 清溪场水文站 旱季和雨季 面雨量 水位变化特征 周期与突变分析 

分 类 号：P343[天文地球—水文科学]