江西林业及其三次产业对全省生态文明贡献率的测度实证研究  

Empirical Research on the Measurement of Forestry and Its Three Industries’Contributions to Ecological Civilization in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：廖冰[1] 张智光[2] LIAO Bing;ZHANG Zhiguang(College of Economics and Management,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330045,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330045 [2]南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《生态经济》2021年第5期199-207,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“生态文明的阈值和水平双指数测度方法”(71673136);江西省科技计划管理科学类定向择优项目“科技支撑我省国家生态文明试验区建设路径体系研究”(20192BAA208013)。

摘　　要：科学测度林业及其三次产业对生态文明的贡献率,既有利于管理者掌握林业对生态文明作用影响的客观规律,又有利于管理者有效制定林业助推生态文明建设的对策建议。以江西为例,基于共生理论,利用2007—2019年数据,首先构建PSIR-SEM模型确定生态文明指标及其权重;然后采用Lotka-Volterra模型的"指标—指数"耦合法,通过指标及其权重测得阈值与绿值,依次对生态文明阶段与水平进行判定;再以生态文明水平为因变量,以农业、林业及其三次产业、畜牧业等十大产业发展水平为自变量,构建双对数模型估计林业及其三次产业对生态文明作用的回归系数;最后通过"归一化"算法由回归系数测度江西林业及其三次产业对生态文明的贡献率。结果显示:(1)2007—2019年,江西林业对全省生态文明的贡献率逐年递增且在所有产业中最大,江西林业在助推全省生态文明建设中发挥着极其重要的主体作用;(2)江西林业三次产业对全省生态文明的贡献呈现"结构微笑曲线",林业一产、三产、二产贡献率依次降低,但林业三产贡献率增长幅度最大,在林业产业中占据主导地位。Scientifically measuring forestry and its three industries’contributions to ecological civilization are not only favorable for managers to grasp the objective regulations forestry has on ecological civilization,but also are favorable for managers to put forward some strategies of forestry to promote the construction of ecological civilization.Firstly,with the data from 2007 to 2019 in Jiangxi,the indicators and their weightings of ecological civilization were determined by using the method of PSIR and SEM.Secondly,by means of the coupling from indicators to indexes of Lotka-Volterra symbiotic model,threshold values and green degrees were calculated to respectively judge"stage and level"for ecological civilization through indicators and their weightings.Thirdly,the level of ecological civilization was put as the dependent variable and the levels of agriculture,forestry and its three industries,etc.ten industries were put as the independent variables,and then the double logarithmic model was selected to estimate the coefficients of forestry and its three industries to ecological civilization.Finally,the contribution rates of forestry and its three industries to ecological civilization were calculated by means of normalization algorithm according to these coefficients.The results show that:(1)The contribution rate of forestry to ecological civilization was increasing progressively year by year and the largest from 2007 to 2019.Forestry plays an extremely important role in promoting ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi province.(2)The contribution of forestry three industries to the ecological civilization in Jiangxi Province presents a"structural smile curve".The contribution rates of the primary,tertiary and secondary forestry industries decrease successively,but the contribution rate of forestry tertiary industry increases the most,which occupies a dominant position in the forestry industry.

关 键 词：林业第一产业 林业第二产业 林业第三产业 生态文明 贡献率 

分 类 号：F326.23[经济管理—产业经济] F205