基于灰色模糊物元预测的新乡市大气环境质量评价  

Atmospheric Environment Quality Evaluation of Xinxiang City Based on Grey Fuzzy Matter Element Prediction

作　　者：王佳楠 程港桠 校园齐 李嘉伟 程启先 WANG Jianan;CHENG Gangya;XIAO Yuanqi;LI Jiawei;CHENG Qixian(College of Geography and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,China;School of Geographic Sciences,Xinyang Normal University,Xinyang 464000,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学地理与环境学院,山东济南250358 [2]信阳师范学院地理科学学院,河南信阳464000 [3]南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《湖南理工学院学报（自然科学版）》2021年第2期57-62,共6页Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(4207071645);河南省研究生教育改革与质量提升工程项目(HNYJS2020JD14)。

摘　　要：依据新乡市2015~2019年大气环境污染的面板数据,引入灰色模糊物元预测模型对新乡市大气环境质量的现状进行预测与评价,研究发现其现状值与预测值相一致,并得到以下结论:(1)通过将灰色预测模型得出的不同年份的预测值与现状值相比较,发现误差值在一般要求之内即均≤5.00%;(2)灰色模糊物元分析方法可靠有效,能够较为准确地对大气环境质量进行分析和预测,且通过预测发现2020年和2021年有着向好的趋势;(3)该方法模型操作运用较为简便,可广泛地应用于环境质量评价中的其他研究方向.Based on the 2015~2019 panel data of atmospheric environmental pollution in Xinxiang city,the grey fuzzy matter-element prediction model was introduced to evaluate the current status and prediction of the atmospheric environment quality in Xinxiang city.It is found that the current value is consistent with the predicted value.The research draws the following conclusions:(1)Comparing the predicted values of different years by the gray prediction model with the current value,it is found that the error value is within the general requirements,that is,≤5.00%;(2)The gray fuzzy matter-element analysis method is reliable and effective.It is more accurate to analyze and predict the atmospheric environmental quality,and through the prediction,it is found that there is a trend of improvement in 2020 and 2021;(3)The method is relatively simple to operate and can be widely used in other research directions in environmental quality assessment.

关 键 词：灰色模糊物元分析 灰色预测模型 大气环境质量评价 新乡市 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]