基于多维极值分布的风雨荷载下输电线路风偏放电概率分析  

Probability analysis of windage yaw discharge under wind and rain loads based on the multidimensional extreme value distribution

作　　者：邓红雷[1] 周晨 夏桥 张莉彬 唐崇旺 陈涛威 朱凌 DENG Honglei;ZHOU Chen;XIA Qiao;ZHANG Libin;TANG Chongwang;CHEN Taowei;ZHU Ling(School of Electric Power,South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China;Huizhou Power Supply Bureau,Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd., Huizhou 516001, China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510640 [2]广东电网有限责任公司惠州供电局,广东惠州516001

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2021年第2期67-75,共9页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(031300KK52160012)。

摘　　要：大风天气下通常伴随着降雨,强风雨荷载的冲击会对输电线路可靠性产生不利影响,导致风偏放电事故,对电力企业及用户侧造成重大损失。提出一种基于风速、风向和雨强三维联合分布模型的输电线路风偏放电概率预测模型。首先,以极值风速、极值雨强及其风向角为变量刻画风速、雨强、风向的分布特性,然后,考虑风速、雨强、风向的概率相关性,采用Archimedean Copulas函数建立多维联合概率分布,以此为基础得到输电线路风偏放电的实时概率预测模型。最后,通过Matlab编程实现该预测模型,并通过实例数据验证该输电线路风偏放电概率预测模型的合理性和有效性。Heavy wind is usually accompanied by rainfall,the strong wind and rain load will have negative impacts on the reliability of transmission lines,which could result in windage yaw discharge accidents and leads to significant losses of power enterprises and the consumers.Therefore,a probability distribution model is proposed in this paper based on a three-dimensional joint distribution model,including the wind speed,wind direction and rainfall intensity.Firstly,the distribution characteristics of wind speed,rainfall intensity and wind direction are described by the extreme wind speed,extreme rainfall intensity and wind direction angle.Then,considering the probability of wind speed,rainfall intensity,and direction,Archimedean Copulas function is utilized to build the multidimensional joint probability distribution,which can further be used to build the real-time probability prediction model of windage yaw discharge of transmission line.Finally,the prediction model is realized by Matlab programming,and the effectiveness of the proposed probability prediction model for the windage yaw of transmission lines is verified through the realistic power systems data.

关 键 词：输电线路 风偏放电 Archimedean Copula函数 多维联合分布模型 故障概率 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]