我国城市生活垃圾能源化利用潜力时空分析及影响因素分析  

Temporal and Spatial Variation&Influence Factors Analysis of Waste-to-energy Utilization Potential for Municipal Solid Waste in China

作　　者：马涛[1] 王晓磊 洪涛[1] 陈东旭 张文曦 MA Tao;WANG Xiao-lei;HONG Tao;CHEN Dong-xu;ZHANG Wen-xi(School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150010, China;School of Economics and Management,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021 China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150010 [2]宁夏大学经济管理学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《节能技术》2021年第2期99-106,共8页Energy Conservation Technology

基　　金：城市水资源与水环境国家重点实验室(哈尔滨工业大学)自主课题“基于主体功能核算的水资源优化配置”(2019DX14);国家自然基金专项项目“十四五”重大生产力布局研究(71950001);国家自然基金面上项目“水资源与能源约束下主体功能核算及实现机制研究”(71974046);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“支撑高质量发展国土空间治理体系的自然资源平衡表原理设计与应用开发”(HIT.HSS.201839);IECT国际清洁能源拔尖创新人才培养项目(201802180090)。

摘　　要：本文分析了我国城市生活垃圾能源化的发电潜力。分别利用生物质过程和热化学过程发电潜力方法计算出省际间的垃圾可发电量,运用空间相关性分析考察省际间全局空间自相关和局域空间自相关的分布特征,运用普通线性回归模型(OLS)和地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析了垃圾能源化发电潜力的影响因素。结果显示2004~2017年全国生物质过程发电潜力最高达3.68亿kW,热化学过程发电潜力达64.32亿kW;发电潜力的分布呈现出显著的区域差异,不同年份具有不同的集聚特征;城镇化水平、政府环境财政支出、技术市场成交额、垃圾处理厂数量是生物质发电潜力的影响因素,地区生产总值、居民可支配收入、政府环境财政支出、技术市场成交额是热化学发电潜力的影响因素。垃圾能源化作为新兴的可再生能源技术,为有效实现我国城市生活垃圾减量化的重大需求和传统能源部分替代提供了可能性。In this study,the Municipal Solid Waste(MSW)waste-to-energy in China was analyzed for estimating the Power Generation Potential(PGP).Using the biochemical and thermochemical process to calculate the power between provinces,spatial correlation analysis approach was used for estimating the spatial distribution characteristics,the general linear regression model and geographical weighted regression model for analyzing the influence factors.The results showed that the PGP of biomass process is up to 368 million kW,and that of thermochemical process is up to 6.432 million kW from 2004 to 2017.MSW waste-to-energy potential were distributed with significant regional disparities and diversifying clustering characteristics of various years.All factors such as urbanization level,governmental fiscal expenditure for environment,transaction volume of technical market,quantity of waste treatment plants are the influencial factors affecting biochemical PGP;while the main influential factors of thermochemical PGP were gross regional domestic product,annual disposable income of residents,and governmental fiscal expenditure for environment and transaction volume of technical market.As an emerging renewable energy technology,waste-to-energy provides a possibility for China to effectively realize the great need of reducing MSW and partially replace a traditional energy sources.

关 键 词：垃圾能源化 城市生活垃圾 发电潜力 时空分析 影响因素 

分 类 号：TK019[动力工程及工程热物理]