新常态下居民收入结构、财政支出结构与居民消费之间的动态关系研究  

Research on the dynamic relationship among residents’income structure,fiscal expenditure structure and residents’consumption under the new normal

作　　者：梁红梅[1] 赵宏宝 张百婷 李新新 LIANG Hongmei;ZHAO Hongbao;ZHANG Baiting;LI Xinxin(College of Economics,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学经济学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2021年第1期105-112,共8页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71263046)。

摘　　要：为明确新常态下居民收入结构、财政支出结构与居民消费之间的动态关系,本文基于历史数据,运用Johansen检验,通过建立Sims-VAR模型实证检验了新常态下一般公共服务支出占国家财政支出的比重以及人均工资性收入、人均经营性收入和居民消费之间的动态关系。结果表明:①三者之间存在均衡的协整关系,且这种长期关系在2014年经济新常态及以后尤为显著;从短期来看,预计下一期消费是影响当期居民消费最主要的因素;从长期来看,人均工资性收入对居民消费的推动作用最大;②Granger因果关系检验表明,国家财政支出中一般公共服务支出比重提升、人均工资性收入、人均经营净收入是居民消费的单向格兰杰原因,国家财政支出中一般公共服务支出比重提升是人均工资性收入和人均经营净收入的单向格兰杰原因;③脉冲效应函数和方差分解表明,各变量对居民消费都有一个较长的持续效应和促进作用。In order to clarify the dynamic relationship among residents’income structure,fiscal expenditure structure and residents’consumption under the new normal.Based on historical data,the paper uses Johansen test and establishes Sims-VAR model to empirically test the proportion of general public service expenditure accounting for national financial expenditure under the new normal as well as the dynamic relationship among per capita wage income,per capita operating income and residents’consumption.The paper has the three results.①There is a balanced co-integration relationship which is a long-term relationship,and it has been particularly significant since 2014 when we are in a new normal of the economy.In a short term,the next consumption which is the most important factor is expected to affect the current period of household consumption. In the long run,the per capita wage income has the greatest driving effect on household consumption.②The Granger causality tests show that the proportion promotion that general public service accounting for the nation’s fiscal expenditure,salary income and net operating per capita is a one-way[JP]Granger cause of residents’consumption,and it is also a one-way Granger reason of salary income and net operating per capita.③Impulse effect function and variance decomposition indicate that each variable has a longer lasting and promoting effect on household consumption.

关 键 词：财政支出结构 收入结构 居民消费 Sims-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]