系统性预期错误与民间借贷危机  

Systematic Errors in Expectation and Underground Financial Crises

作　　者：王磊 朱太辉 WANG Lei;ZHU Taihui(Economics and Management School of Hanzhou Normal University,Hanzhou 311121,China;JD Digits Research Institute,Beijing 101111,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学经济与管理学院 [2]国家金融与发展实验室 [3]中国人民大学国际货币研究所

出　　处：《金融评论》2020年第6期108-120,124,共14页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

摘　　要：本文基于两个投资的公理性假设,构建了一个用系统性预期错误解释金融危机的理论框架,并用于分析民间借贷危机的发生机制。这一理论推断表明,总体真实冲击、政府经济政策与非独立预期这三个主要因素会导致系统性预期错误大幅度增加,从而引发金融危机。本文进一步以鄂尔多斯民间借贷危机为案例,对该理论进行了验证。实证结果显示,在鄂尔多斯民间借贷危机中,三个因素都起到了重要作用,理论分析推演出的可验证假说与现实相符。最后,本文提出了相应的政策建议,对预防民间借贷危机具有一定的启示价值。This paper proposes a theory of financial crises based on systematic errors in expectation derived from two axiomatic assumptions on investment.It argues that three main factors,i.e.aggregate real shocks,government economic policy,and non-independent expectation,would severely raise the chance of systematic errors in expectation.This theory is then applied to explain the Ordos underground financial crisis.All three factors have contributed to its emergence.Two testable implications deduced from the theory are consistent with empirical evidence.Finally,this paper proposes policy suggestions to prevent underground financial crises.

关 键 词：金融危机 系统性预期错误 民间借贷危机 鄂尔多斯 

分 类 号：E31[军事—军事理论] E51