奖励惩罚式参与:经济状况对台湾县市长选举投票率的影响  

Participation for Reward or Punishment: The Impact of Economic Conditions upon Voter Turnout of Elections for County Magistrates and City Mayors in Taiwan

作　　者：杨贵 Yang Gui(the Department of Political Science,College of Social Sciences,Chengchi University in Taiwan)

机构地区：[1]台湾政治大学社会科学院政治学系

出　　处：《台海研究》2021年第1期63-75,共13页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：近年来台湾地区领导人和"立委"选举投票率出现下降趋势,本文以县市长选举为例,重点关注经济因素对投票率的影响,并援引问责政治和经济投票理论,认为经济状况变差促使民众去投票以表达不满并惩罚政府,但经济状况变好不会刺激民众去投票以表达满意和奖励政府,即经济状况越差,民众越会去投票,投票率越高。研究结果显示县市和地区整体经济状况对投票率均存在显著的影响,且经济状况越差投票率越高,存在抬升效应。本文发现或对理解台湾地区县市长选举运作和政治发展中的经济因素有一定的帮助和启示。In recent years, voter turnout for Taiwan’s regional leader and legislature election has decreased. This paper takes as an example elections for Taiwan’ s county magistrates and city mayors to investigate the impact of economic factors on voter turnout. It resorts to theories of political accountability and economic voting, and argues that economic deterioration can mobilize people to vote to express their discontent and punish the incumbent government for its poor performance, resulting in higher voter turnout. However, economic prosperity fails to stimulate people to vote to show gratitude as a reward to the incumbent government for its success. In other words, when the economy deteriorates, more people will go to vote and the voter turnout will increase. This study result shows that local and regional economies both exert significant influence on voter turnout, with poorer economic performance leading to higher turnout. The findings could shed light upon the economic factors in Taiwan’s county and city elections as well as democratic political development.

关 键 词：投票率 县市选举 经济投票 问责政治 台湾研究 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] D675.8[政治法律—政治学]