货币政策、多重预期与宏观经济波动——基于NK-DSGE模型的数值模拟分析  

Monetary Policy,Multiple Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations:Numerical Simulation Analysis Based on NK-DSGE Model

作　　者：张龙[1] 刘金全[1] ZHANG Long;LIU Jin-quan(School of Business,Jilin University,Changchun 130112,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130112

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2021年第2期334-351,共18页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

摘　　要：本文以冲击极值、调控幅度、正向响应期、短期效应、阶段效应和长期效应为评价指标,运用包含政策预期、需求预期和供给预期的多预期NK-DSGE模型分析货币政策的宏观经济效应.结果表明:数量型规则下,货币政策+全要素生产率预期下的货币政策基本为产出的"占优"选择,货币政策+消费偏好和货币政策+消费偏好+全要素生产率预期下的货币政策为通胀的"纳什"选择,多预期在数量型规则下产生了宏观经济"抵消效应";价格型规则下,货币政策+消费偏好+全要素生产率预期下的货币政策为产出的"占优"选择,货币政策+消费偏好预期下的货币政策为通胀的"占优"选择,多预期在价格型规则下产生了产出"叠加效应".货币当局应结合不同规则和冲击来源采用不同政策和供求预期组合,深化供给侧结构性改革.Based on the shock extreme,regulation range,positive response period,short-term effects,phase effects,and long-term effects,this paper analyzes macroeconomic effects of monetary policy by using NK-DSGE model.The results show that:Under the quantitative rule,monetary policy is"dominant"choice of output under monetary policy and total factor productivity(TFP)expectation;monetary policy is"Nash"choice of inflation under monetary policy,consumption preference and TFP expectation.Multiple expectations produce the"ofset effect"under quantitative rule.Under the price-based rule,monetary policy is"dominant"choice of output under monetary policy,consumption preference and TFP expectation,monctary policy is"dominant"choice of inflation under monetary policy and consumption preference expectation.Multiple expectations produce the output“additive effect”under price-based rule.Monetary policy authorities should adopt different expectation combinations of policies,supply and demand which combine different monetary rules and shock sources,and further deepen supply-side structural reforms.

关 键 词：货币政策 预期冲击 占优选择 纳什选择 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济] F822