数字“一带一路”能否推动中国贸易地位提升——基于进口依存度、技术附加值、全球价值链位置的视角  

Does the Digital“Belt and Road”Promote China’s Trade Status?——From the Perspective of Import Dependence,Technology Added Value,and Global Value Chain Status

作　　者：姜峰 段云鹏 JIANG Feng;DUAN Yunpeng(School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871;School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2021年第2期77-93,共17页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“一带一路”重大专项项目“推动绿色‘一带一路’研究:理论、评价和战略”(18VDL010);贵州省哲学社会科学重大项目“‘一带一路’倡议与老挝‘变陆锁国为陆联国’战略对接研究”(20GZZB06);中国博士后科学基金第67批面上资助项目“双边异质性视角下绿色‘一带一路’实践路径与长效驱动研究”(2020M670002)。

摘　　要：利用动态因子分析法对2010~2018年数字"一带一路"发展水平进行测算,并实证检验其与中国贸易地位之间的内在联系。研究发现:数字"一带一路"发展能够显著降低沿线经济体自中国进口产品的交易价格,减少进口贸易成本并提高沿线经济体与中国双边贸易多样性水平,进而提高中国产品在"一带一路"沿线经济体的市场占有率和中国产品出口技术附加值,推动中国在全球价值链地位的攀升,其中中国制造的中间品和消费品效果最为显著。This paper uses the Dynamic Factor Analysis(DFA)method to measure the development level of the digital"Belt and Road"from 2010 to 2018,and empirically test its internal connection with China’s trade status.The study found that the development of the digital"Belt and Road"could significantly reduce the transaction price of imported products from China as well as the cost of import trade,and lift the level of diversification of bilateral trade between China and the countries along the route,thereby increasing the market share of Chinese products in the countries along"the Belt and Road"and the added value of Chinese products,and raising China’s global value chain status,especially for intermediate goods and consumer goods made by China.

关 键 词：数字经济 “一带一路” 中介效应 动态因子分析法 

分 类 号：F062.5[经济管理—政治经济学]