广东省21个地级市医师人力供需分析与趋势预测  

Analysis and tendency forecastingon supply-demand of doctorresourcein 21 prefecture cities in Guangdong

作　　者：何易洲 曹蓉[2] 蔡荟 陈昭悦 夏英华[2] 卞巧 何群[2] 张永慧 HE Yi-zhou;CAO Rong;CAI Hui;CHEN Zhao-yue;XIA Ying-hua;BIAN Qiao;HE Qun;ZHANG Yong-hui(School of Public Health,Southern Medical University y Guangzhou 550014,China;Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

机构地区：[1]南方医科大学公共卫生学院,广东广州550014 [2]广东省疾病预防控制中心/广东省公共卫生研究院

出　　处：《华南预防医学》2021年第3期310-314,共5页South China Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广东省医学科学技术研究基金项目(B2021004)。

摘　　要：目的分析广东省21个地市的医师人力供需情况,并预测2022年的供需变化趋势。方法基于卫生服务需求法与Holt指数平滑法,拟合广东省各个地市2009-2019年的住院与门诊服务数据,对2022年医师供需变化进行预测。结果预测2022年广东省医师需求为322 290人,执业(助理)医师配置总数为331 806人,全省医师供给状况较充足。2019年供需比最高的3个地市分别是珠海市(1.33)、汕头市(1.31)、汕尾市(1.31);医师供需比最低的3个地市分别是茂名市(0.55)、中山市(0.76)、江门市(0.76)。预测到2022年,医师供需比最高的3个地市分别是汕尾市(1.64)、珠海市(1.34)、深圳市(1.28);医师供需比最低的3个地市分别是茂名市(0.58)、江门市(0.79)、云浮市(0.90)。结论 2022年广东省医师供需情况良好,医师配置数将超过医师需求数,大部分地市的医师供需情况得到改善。Objective To analyze the supply-demand of doctor resource in 21 prefecture cities in Guangdong,and forecast the change trend of supply-demand in 2022. Methods Based on the health service demand method and Holt exponential smoothing model,the inpatient and outpatient service data of each city in Guangdong Province from 2009 to2019 were collected to fit and forecast the supply-demand relationship of doctors in 2022. Results It is predicted that in2022,the demand for doctors in Guangdong will be 322 290,and the total number of medical practitioner and assistant medical practitioner will be 331 806. The supply situation of doctors in Guangdongis relatively sufficient. In 2019,Zhuhai(1.33),Shantou(1.31)and Shanwei(1.31)had the highest supply-demand ratio,while Maoming(0.55),Zhongshan(0.76)and Jiangmen(0.76)had the lowest one.It is predicted that in 2022,the supply-demand ratio in Shanwei(1.64),Zhuhai(1.34)and Shenzhen(1.28)will be the highest,while Maoming(0.58),Jiangmen(0.79)and Yunfu(0.90)will be the lowest ones.Conclusion The supply-demand of doctors in Guangdong will be good in 2022,and there will be an over supply of doctors. The supply-demand of doctors in most of 21 cities will be improved.

关 键 词：卫生服务需求 医疗资源 医师供需 预测 

分 类 号：R192[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]