基于Copula函数的连河通江湖泊防洪安全设计:以洪泽湖为例  

Safety design for rivers-connected lake flood control based on Copula function:A case study of Lake Hongze

作　　者：罗赟[1] 董增川[1] 刘玉环[1] 钟敦宇 管西柯[1] 周强 陈霞 杨婕 Luo Yun;Dong Zengchuan;Liu Yuhuan;Zhong Dunyu;Guan Xike;Zhou Qiang;Chen Xia;Yang Jie(College of Hydrology and Water Resource,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,P.R.China;Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Environment Monitoring Station,Water Resources Department of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210029,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]江苏省水利厅,水土保持生态环境监测总站,南京210029

出　　处：《湖泊科学》2021年第3期879-892,共14页Journal of Lake Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508200);江苏省水利科技基金重大项目(JSSL-SZY-2019003)联合资助。

摘　　要：湖泊作为一种蓄水单元,尤其是大型过水性湖泊,是一种典型的平原型水库,在功能上与山谷型水库具有许多相似之处,但由于其特殊的地理地形构造,使得入湖洪水过程与入库洪水过程存在着较大的差异.在防洪安全设计研究中,山谷型水库关注的多是坝址洪水,即总的入库洪水过程,而对于湖泊来说,还需要关注各个分区的入湖洪水过程对湖区洪水演进的影响.针对大型过水性湖泊入湖洪水特征,本文采用Copula函数构造了多个联合分布函数,提出了一套基于总的入湖洪水过程推导各个分区入湖洪水过程置信区间的方法.以洪泽湖为应用实例,结果表明:1)在联合重现期已知的情况下,该方法能够确定总入湖洪量与洪峰的95%置信区间;2)该方法通过径流相关性分析对入湖河道合并聚类,形成分区入湖过程,既考虑了河道间天然的水文、水力联系,又避免了联合分布函数维度过高的问题;3)在总入湖洪量已知的情况下,该方法能够确定各分区入湖洪量分配95%置信区域.该方法具有较强的统计理论基础,拓展了多变量洪水频率分析技术在水利工程实际中的应用范围.As a kind of water storage unit,especially a large water-carrying lake,the lake is a typical plain reservoir.It has many similarities with the valley reservoir in function.However,due to its special geographical topography,the flood processes of the lake have a big difference compared with the valley reservoir.For valley reservoirs,the dam site flood which is the whole reservoir inflow flood is concerned in the flood control safety design.However,for lakes,more attention should be paid to the flood processes of each sub-region,which plays an important role in the lake area flood evolution.In this paper,according to the flood process characteristics of large water-carrying lakes,Copula function is used to construct multiple joint distribution functions,and the method that figures up the confidence interval of each sub-region flood process based on the whole flood process is proposed accordingly.Taking Lake Hongze as an example,the results show that:1)If the joint return period is known,this method can determine the 95%confidence interval of the flood volume and flood peak of the whole flood process;2)The rivers entering Lake Hongze were merged and clustered by runoff correlation analysis,which not only considers the natural hydrological and hydraulic connections between the rivers,but also avoids the problem of excessively high dimensions of the joint distribution function;3)When the whole flood volume is confirmed,this method can determine the 95%confidence interval for the flood volume allocation.This method has a strong statistical and theoretical foundation and expands the application range of multivariable flood frequency analysis technology in the practice of water conservancy projects.

关 键 词：过水性湖泊 平原型水库 COPULA函数 防洪安全 设计洪水 洪泽湖 

分 类 号：TV122.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]