灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的改进及应用  

Improvement and Application of GM(1,1) Gray Prediction Model

作　　者：杨存典 张雁 王怡 YANG Cun-dian;ZHANG Yan;WANG Yi(College of Urban,Rural Planning and Architectural Engineering,Shangluo University,Shangluo 726000,Shaanxi;Faculty of Economics and Management,Shangluo 726000,Shaanxi)

机构地区：[1]商洛学院城乡规划与建筑工程学院,陕西商洛726000 [2]商洛学院经济管理学院,陕西商洛726000

出　　处：《商洛学院学报》2021年第2期48-52,共5页Journal of Shangluo University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目(19XJL002);陕西省社会科学基金项目(09E021);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(08JK036)。

摘　　要：通过对GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测方法的改进,解决了模型预测过程中依赖初始值和背景值所带来的预测精度不高的问题。运用最小二乘原理,求出了模型参数的估计值,进而得到了预测模型。经过实证分析,预测结果的精度得到了提高。拓展了GM(1,1)灰色预测模型在实际预测中的应用。The improvement of application of GM(1,1) gray prediction model solved the inaccurate problem due to the reliance on initial value and background value in the process of model prediction.With the use of least square principle,estimate of parameters in initial value and background value is obtained and a prediction model is further obtained.Empirical analysis shows that the prediction accuracy has been improved,and the application of GM(1,1) gray prediction model in actual prediction is expanded.

关 键 词：背景值构造 GM(1 1)灰色预测模型 最小二乘法 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]