中国城市产业承载力的影响因素及分解研究  

Research on the Influential Factors and Decomposition of Urban Industrial Carrying Capacity in China

作　　者：周京奎[1,2] 宋健 ZHOU Jingkui;SONG Jian(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071;Collaborative Innovation Center for China Economy,Tianjin 300071)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [2]中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心,天津300071

出　　处：《长白学刊》2021年第3期97-108,F0002,共13页Changbai Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“京津冀交通、环境及产业协同发展机制创新研究”(15ZDA019);国家社会科学基金重点项目“新型城镇化背景下城市产业承载力提升路径与政策选择研究”(14AZD110)。

摘　　要：城市产业承载力提升对于解决城市发展面临的资源环境瓶颈、提升城市发展质量、推动城市可持续发展发挥着重要作用。基于2007-2016年280个地级市数据,利用面板模型和Shapley分解方法量化分析城市产业承载力的影响因素及其相对重要程度,结果表明:基础设施、科技创新、环境质量和就业状况均对城市产业承载力具有促进作用,而科技创新是城市产业承载力增长的主要推动因素;基础设施、环境质量和就业状况对城市产业承载力的现状和潜力指数均具有促进作用,基础设施和科技创新则对提升城市产业承载力禀赋有较高的解释度。此外,各因素对城市产业承载力的影响有显著的区域差异。The improvement of urban industrial carrying capacity plays an important role in solving the resource and environment bottlenecks faced by urban development,improving the quality of urban development,and promoting the sustainable development of cities.Based on the data of 280 prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2016,this paper uses panel model and Shapley decomposition method to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors and relative importance of urban industrial carrying capacity.The results show that infrastructure,scientific and technological innovation,environmental quality and employment status have a promoting effect on urban industrial carrying capacity,while scientific and technological innovation is the main driving factor for the growth of urban industrial carrying capacity.Infrastructure,environmental quality and employment status can promote the status quo and potential index of urban industrial carrying capacity.Infrastructure and scientific and technological innovation have a high degree of explanation for improving the endowment of urban industrial carrying capacity.In addition,there are significant regional differences in the impact of various factors on urban industrial carrying capacity.

关 键 词：产业承载力 科技创新 禀赋指数 潜力指数 Shapley分解 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]