基于SD-CM的施工BIM成熟度动态评价及敏感因素分析  

Dynamic Evaluation of Construction BIM Maturity Based on SD-CM and Analysis of Sensitive Factors

作　　者：黄秋源 董娜[1] HUANG Qiuyuan;DONG Na(College of Architecture&Environment,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学建筑与环境学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2021年第2期174-182,共9页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2016YFC0701400)。

摘　　要：施工BIM是BIM效益发挥的重要窗口,对其成熟度评价有利于促进施工BIM的普及应用。通过文献梳理,提出技术、组织、经济、环境4个维度的16个施工BIM成熟度评价指标,采用差异驱动法对指标进行赋权,并建立指标间因果反馈关系,利用系统动力学仿真软件Vensim进行仿真模拟,得出16个指标2011—2025年的动态数值。然后利用云模型将仿真数值导入正向云发生器计算隶属度,引入等级特征值概念,计算得到施工BIM成熟度动态评价结果,最后采用OAT法,以2020年的截面数据进行权重敏感性分析。研究结果表明,当下我国施工BIM成熟度等级为发展级,未来5年内将向着成熟级发展,且BIM经验、BIM人才、BIM经济效益和BIM协同是目前制约我国施工BIM成熟度提升的瓶颈因素。Construction BIM is an important window for BIM to play its benefits,and its maturity evaluation is conducive to promoting the popularization and application of construction BIM.Through literature review,16 construction BIM maturity evaluation indexes are proposed by 4 dimensions of technology,organization,economy and environment.The difference driven method is used to weight the indexes,and the causal feedback relationship is established.The system dynamics software Vensim is used perform a simulation and the dynamic values from 2011 to 2025 are obtained.Then the simulation value is introduced into the positive cloud generator to calculate the membership degree,and the concept of level eigenvalue is introduced to calculate the dynamic evaluation result.Finally,the OAT method is used to analyze the sensitivity of weight based on the section data in 2020.The results show that the maturity level of construction BIM in China is development level at present,and it will develop towards maturity level in the next 5 years;and BIM experience,BIM talents,BIM economic benefits and BIM collaboration are the bottleneck factors restricting the maturity improvement of construction BIM in China.

关 键 词：施工BIM 成熟度 动态评价 系统动力学 云模型 

分 类 号：TU712[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]