内蒙古地区夏季旱涝急转环流异常特征及其预测  

Circulation Anomaly Characteristics and Prediction of Drought and Flood Abrupt Alternations in Summer in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：刘炜[1,2] 赵艳丽 冯晓晶 LIU Wei;ZHAO Yanli;FENG Xiaojing(Inner Mongolia Climate Center,Hohhot 010051,China;Key Open Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research,Shenyang 110166,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区气候中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《干旱气象》2021年第2期203-214,共12页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技重大专项(2020ZD0013-02);内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2020GG0017);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-023)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用内蒙古地区116个气象观测站逐月降水量、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料、NOAA海表温度资料以及国家气象业务内网提供的130项气候监测指数,计算内蒙古夏季旱涝急转指数并分区,分析各分区“旱转涝”和“涝转旱”年的海气异常特征,探讨各气候区夏季旱涝急转指数与前期环流和海温指数的关系,并构建预测模型。结果表明:(1)近39 a来,内蒙古各气候区从春末夏初到盛夏由旱转涝的特征趋于减弱,而由涝转旱的特征趋于增强。(2)内蒙古西部地区夏季旱转涝年和涝转旱年,东亚大槽和西太平洋副热带高压的位置、强度以及水汽条件和垂直运动均存在显著差异;内蒙古东北部地区夏季旱转涝年和涝转旱年,东北冷涡强度、水汽条件和垂直运动存在显著差异。(3)内蒙古地区夏季旱涝急转指数与前期印度洋和热带西太平洋暖池区、黑潮区及北太平洋东北部海温存在显著负相关关系。(4)基于前期环流及海温指数构建的内蒙古夏季旱涝急转指数预测模型具有一定的预测能力,可为内蒙古地区夏季旱涝急转预测提供一定参考。Based on monthly precipitation data at 116 meteorological stations of Inner Mongolia,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,NOAA sea surface temperature(SST)and 130 climate monitoring indexes from National Climate Center of China,the drought-flood abrupt alternation index(DFAI)in summer was calculated in Inner Mongolia,and on this basis the climate regions were divided.The anomalous characteristics of atmospheric circulation and SST in drought-flood abrupt alternation years in each climate region of Inner Mongolia were analyzed.The relations between DFAI in summer in each climate region of Inner Mongolia and previous circulation and SST indexes were discussed,and the prediction models of DFAI in summer were established in each climate region of Inner Mongolia.The results are as follows:(1)The transition characteristics from drought to flood weakened from late spring and early summer to midsummer,while that from flood to drought strengthened in each climate region of Inner Mongolia in recent 39 years.(2)The location and intensity of east Asian trough and western Pacific Ocean subtropical high had significant difference in western Inner Mongolia in drought-flood alternation years,and the water vapour supply and vertical motion were significantly different.The cold vortex intensity in northeast China,water vapour and vertical motion were significantly different in northeastern Inner Mongolia in drought-flood alternation years.(3)The DFAI in summer in Inner Mongolia had significantly negative correlation with previous SST of Indian Ocean,tropical western Pacific Ocean warm pool,Kuroshio region and the northeast of northern Pacific Ocean.(4)The prediction models of DFAI in summer in Inner Mongolia based on previous atmospheric circulation and SST indexes had certain prediction ability,which could provide some reference for the prediction of drought-flood abrupt alternation in summer in Inner Mongolia.

关 键 词：内蒙古地区 夏季 旱涝急转 海气异常 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]