遵义市极端气温指数的时空变化特征  

Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Index in Zunyi City

作　　者：邹德全[1] 邹承立 田洪进 吴心路 邹象 ZOU Dequan;ZOU Chengli;TIAN Hongjin;WU Xinlu;ZOU Xiang(Zunyi Meteorological Bureau,Zunyi,Guizhou 563000;Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center,Ministry of Ecological Environment,Beijing 100082,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省遵义市气象局,贵州遵义563000 [2]生态环境部核与辐射安全中心,北京100082

出　　处：《贵州农业科学》2021年第2期146-153,共8页Guizhou Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：【目的】探明极端气温指数时空变化特征,为遵义市农业生产结构调整及防灾减灾提供参考依据。【方法】利用遵义市所辖13个县(市、区)1960-2015年最高、最低气温日数据,通过线性倾向估计及偏相关分析方法,研究遵义市整体区域及其各县(市、区)冰冻日数(ID)、霜冻日数(FD)、夏天日数(SU)、热夜日数(TR)、冷日指数(TX10)、冷夜指数(TN10)、暖日指数(TX90)、暖夜指数(TN90)、最高气温极大值(TXx)、最低气温极小值(TNn)、最低气温极大值(TNx)、最高气温极小值(TXn)、冷日持续日数(CSDI)、暖日持续日数(WSDI)、生长期长度(GSL)和月平均日较差(DTR)16种极端气温指数长期变化趋势,以及指数及其倾向值与海拔、经度和纬度相关性。【结果】遵义市16个极端气温指数的长期变化中,ID、FD、TX10、TN10、CSDI、WSDI和DTR均呈减少趋势;SU、TR、TX90、TN90、GSL、TXx、TNn、TNx和TXn均呈增加趋势;FD、CSDI、TN10和DTR呈显著减少趋势,暖特征指数的TN90和TR以及所有极值指数TXx、TNn、TNx和TXn均呈显著增加趋势;海拔是ID、FD、SU、TR、TX10、TXx、TNn、TNx、TXn和GSL等指数空间分布的主要影响因素,经、纬向分布规律不强。【结论】遵义气候呈变暖趋势,气候变暖和立体气候差异缩小,有利于高山农业可持续发展;海拔是进行产业结构布局调整和防灾减灾规划时首要考虑的因素。【Objective】The paper is to explore the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of extreme temperature index,which provide a reference for structure adjustment,and disease prevention and reduction in agriculture production in Zunyi City.【Method】Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data in 13 counties(city,district)of Zunyi City during 1960-2015,linear tendency estimation and partial correlation analysis methods are used to study long-term variation trend of 16 extreme temperature indexes[the ice days(ID),frost days(FD),summer days(SU),tropical nights(TR),cold days(TX10),cold nights(TN10),warm days(TX90),warm nights(TN90),TXx,TNn,TNx,TXn,CSDI(cold spell duration days),WSDI(warm spell duration days),GSL(growing season length)and DTR]and correlation between index and its tendency,altitude,longitude and latitude.【Result】In the long-term variation of 16 extreme temperature indexes of Zunyi City,ID,FD,TX10,TN10,CSDI,WSDI and DTR show a decreasing trend,while SU,TR,TX90,TN90,GSL,TXx,TNn,TNx and TXn show an increasing trend.FD,CSDI,TN10 and DTR show a significant decreasing trend,TN90 and TR of warm characteristics indexes and all extreme value including TXx,TNn,TNx and TXn show a significant increasing trend.Altitude is the main factor influencing spatial distribution of ID,FD,SU,TR,TX10,TXx,TNn,TNx,TXn and GSL indexes,and the longitudinal and latitudinal distribution rules are not obvious.【Conclusion】The climate in Zunyi shows a warming trend,and the difference in climate warming and vertical climate is shortening,which is beneficial to sustainable development of high mountain agriculture.Altitude is the first considering factors for adjustment of industrial structure distribution and plan of disaster prevention and reduction.

关 键 词：极端气温 指数 时空变化 遵义 贵州 

分 类 号：S161.2[农业科学—农业气象学]