高质量发展目标下“中国制造”对外贸易转型研究  

Research on the Transformation of“Made in China”Foreign Trade under the Goal of High Quality Development

作　　者：柏慧 BAI Hui(Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏大学,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《经济研究导刊》2021年第12期122-124,共3页Economic Research Guide

基　　金：江苏大学第十八批大学生科研课题立项资助项目(18C112)。

摘　　要：如何推动“中国制造”对外贸易转型,实现制造业外贸高质量发展是我国近年来工作的重中之重。运用全球价值链理论,分析我国制造业对外贸易“大而不强”的发展现状,根据我国制造业外贸“大进大出”、依赖外商直接投资的特点,基于2000—2018年的年度数据,利用VAR模型建立进口、出口、外商直接投资之间的动态关联,利用格兰杰因果关系检验等方法研究我国制造业是外贸大国而非贸易强国的原因,进而提出提升外商直接投资质量、改变对外贸易模式等实现“中国制造”对外贸易高质量发展的路径。How to promote the transformation of“made in China”foreign trade and realize the high-quality development of manufacturing foreign trade is the top priority of China’s work in recent years.Based on the global value chain theory,this paper analyzes the development status of China’s manufacturing industry’s“big but not strong”foreign trade.According to the characteristics of China’s manufacturing industry’s“large import and large export”and dependence on foreign direct investment,based on the annual data from 2000 to 2018,this paper uses VAR model to establish the dynamic correlation between import,export and foreign direct investment,and uses Granger causality test to study the reasons why China’s manufacturing industry is a major trade nation rather than a strong trade nation,and then puts forward the transformation path of improving the quality of foreign direct investment,changing the mode of foreign trade,etc.

关 键 词：制造业对外贸易 高质量发展 全球价值链 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]